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Transcript for November 2, 2019

This show includes the following segments: 

  • African Swine Fever
  • Cow-Calf Corner
  • Cotton Update
  • Mesonet Weather
  • Going Back to Older Technology
  • Market Monitor

 

African Swine Fever

(upbeat music)

>>> Hello, everyone, and welcome to SUNUP.

I'm Lyndall Stout.

African swine fever is having a major impact

on the hog industry in China and other parts of Asia.

Now, there's concern the virus could spread to the US.

SUNUP's Kurtis Hair takes a look at

how the state of Oklahoma is preparing.

>>> [Kurtis] In August 2018, the first cases of

African swine fever were detected in China.

It spread and devastated the pig population.

Now, there is concern that the highly infectious virus

will make it's way to the US.

>>> So the virus is spread

through all bodily fluids, but the primary spread

that we are seeing right now is

what we call a "Sandwich Effect".

So, the virus actually stays viable

within processed meat and cured meats.

African swine fever is not a human health concern.

It is not a food safety concern.

>>> [Kurtis] Dr. Alicia Gorczyca-Southerland

is a staff veterinarian

with Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry.

She says this form of viral movement

is why Asian countries have been hit so hard,

and why the level of concern is so high here in the US.

>>> So, there are different virulent strains

but it ranges from what we call

high-morbidity/high-mortality,

so very acute deaths--everything in the barn dies,

to one or two within a herd start to become ill

and then it just slowly starts to spread.

That's the virus strain that we're the most concerned of,

because it could potentially be missed at first,

because it looks and mimics,

like any type of endemic disease.

>>> As soon as we were notified

that African swine fever was spreading in China,

not just Oklahoma but other states' USDA began

to get concerned and we all started ramping up our plans.

>>> So we started in November last year

with a four state meeting.

Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado.

And the state vets and the USDA vets.

>>> [Kurtis] Roy Lee Lindsay is the

Executive Director of the Oklahoma Pork Counsel.

He says illnesses are always a concern,

but African swine fever is different.

>>> It was apparent that we needed to make sure

we were doing preparedness for ASF specifically.

We were one of the first states

to have that kind of sit down,

certainly one of the first to have

that across state lines reach to other state veterinarians.

>>> In September is, we had a four day long,

what we call a functional exercise,

and each day address a different response action.

We talked about conducting a

foreign animal disease investigation.

So that was with us sending out our

foreign animal disease diagnosticians

out to a producer, collecting samples,

getting those to the laboratory in Stillwater,

but also to the federal laboratory in New York.

>>> [Kurtis] Finding ways to stop

pork movement, depopulation, and disposal,

and finally, permitting and securing the pork supply.

>>> We move pigs across state lines all the time.

It was imperative that our state veterinarian,

the state vet in Kansas, the state vet in Texas,

work together so that we have

this similar kind of response to any disease outbreak.

>>> Animals can shed the virus in any different ways

and pigs can pick it up in garbage

containing infected pork products.

A key component of the preparedness plan

is making sure a problem that already exists in Oklahoma

doesn't get worse.

>>> But if it were to get into

a show pig producer in Southeastern Oklahoma, say,

where there are a lot of feral swine,

then I don't know how we would ever get rid of it.

>>> Its why we talk often about,

one of the biosecurity requirements we talk about,

is how do you protect your herd from feral pigs.

What kind of fencing?

What kind of separation?

What do you have that keeps feral hogs

away from your population?

>>> [Kurtis] Although scary,

Oklahoma Secretary of Agriculture, Blayne Arthur,

says the state is ready if an outbreak happens.

>>> We are as prepared as we know how to be working

with our federal partners, state partners, and industry.

In an emergency type situation or

any type of animal health outbreak

there are things that we can't anticipate.

>>> [Kurtis] Which is why communication is necessary.

>>> [Roy] You know we're not gonna have

the first case of African swine fever

here at the Ag building.

It's gonna be on a farm somewhere out in Oklahoma.

>>> In 21 years, I think this has been

the most dominate issue, what I've spent working on.

And I think that speaks volumes

to how seriously we're taking this threat.

>>> [Kurtis] In Oklahoma county, I'm Kurtis Hair.

>>> We want to talk now about the economic impact

of African swine fever with Daryl Peel

our Livestock Marketing Specialist.

Daryl let's dive right in and

talk about some of the impacts in China and other countries.

>>> Well, of course, China is by far

the biggest pork producing, hog producing country

in the world.

Historically, they've produced nearly half of the world's

hogs there.

So, you know, African swine fever

is now impacting a number of countries

including some in Europe, some in Africa,

but most particularly in Asia.

So, since this disease was reported in China,

in August of 2018, it has continued to spread,

causing widespread devastation that's now

in North and South Korea as well.

Vietnam has been heavily impacted

and the Philippines, Mongolia, and so on.

But, in China, because of the size of their pork industry,

and of course the estimates are very widely and they're

continuing to grow because

it's by no means controlled there.

So, estimates range from 50-70% or 80% of their hogs

may be lost by the end of this year.

That's an enormous loss of meat production,

not only in China, but really on a global scale.

And so, because of this deficit of pork production,

pork is the most popular meat in China,

so there's a huge deficit to be filled there,

and so, they're looking to recover that

wherever they can.

They're buying pork,

but they're also buying other proteins as well

from all over the world.

And the fact of the matter is,

there's a deficit that cannot be filled

in the world right now.

>>> [Interviewer] And what does all this mean

for producers and investors here at home?

>>> Well, you know, with respect

to the pork industry specifically,

of course, we have other issues, right,

with China right now.

So we've got all of these trade issues,

the tariffs are in place.

So, the U.S. is probably the least

competitive place right now.

But again, China really has no option

but to try to source protein wherever they can.

So, we're beginning to see,

the pork industry is beginning to see

some of the anticipated increase

in exports to China and we'll see more

as we finish out 2019 and go into 2020.

Some fairly direct impacts in the pork industry

and, again, we're sort of looking for those things

to continue to grow as time goes on,

despite the tariff situation.

>>> [Interviewer] And then, in terms of how this

may translate to U.S. beef markets

and kind of that area,

interpret that all for us.

(laughs)

>>> Well, the beef industry has been an interesting situation.

Of course, China's been growing rapidly

for a number of years.

They've far eclipsed now, the U.S., as the number one

beef importing country in the world.

Even though the beef consumption per capita

is pretty low in China.

But, in total, it's a big number

and it's growing very rapidly.

And this is going to exaggerate that even more

because of the overall need for protein in China.

Beef, the U.S. industry,

has not been very directly impacted by all of this yet

because we simply don't export much beef to China.

We don't have much market share there.

The tariffs make that an even bigger challenge.

But, again, the African swine fever situation

is going to, directly or indirectly,

boost all markets.

>>> [Interviewer] So the conversations

and opportunities may continue.

>>> Absolutely.

>>> Okay, Derrell, thanks a lot.

>>> You bet.

>>> We'll see you again soon.

(upbeat music)

 

Cow-Calf Corner

>>> Those Oklahoma producers that have

fall calving herds

are only a month, maybe just three weeks away

from the start of the fall breeding season.

So now is a good time to make sure that the bulls

that we're going to use that breeding season,

are ready to go.

First of all, if we're going to have what I call

a multi-sire pasture,

where we're going to have more than one bull,

in the breeding pasture at the same time,

we want to have those bulls already together in a trap,

so that they can get the social order figured out.

Bulls are going to fight and figure out

which one is the dominate male

and might as well get that done ahead of time.

We don't want that fighting taking place

in that first week or so of the breeding season

when we'd like to get a majority of the cows actually bred.

Second of all,

if we're going to use both young bulls and old bulls

in multi-sire situations, as much as possible,

I'd recommend that we keep them in age groups

going into the breeding season together.

In other words, mature bulls together

and young bulls together.

That older, bigger bull becomes more dominate

may actually cause some injury to the younger bull

and we end up a situation where we don't have as much

bull power in the breeding pasture

as we first expected.

If we're going to try to do that,

I would really suggest that we put the mature bulls

in the first part of the breeding season

and then bring the young bulls, the yearling bulls

in to the last say 1/3 of the breeding season.

That way, they've actually, the younger bulls

have got another one to two months of age,

they're more mature, and they've got fewer cows

to actually inseminate and get bred.

Finally, this is the time to go ahead

and visit with your local large animal veterinarian

and schedule breeding soundness exams

for the bulls that you're going to use.

That way, you have a sound breeder

going into the breeding season

rather than finding out next spring

if you do the preg checking then

or worse yet, next fall when you have

very few cows that actually have calves,

due to the fact that you had

an infertile bull in the breeding season.

Schedule that with your local

large animal veterinarian now

so that you can get that testing done.

While you're visiting with your veterinarian

and doing the testing with those bulls,

I suggest also that you visit

with him or her about the need

to have the bulls tested for trichomoniasis.

That's a reproductive disease of cattle

that we can do a good job of eliminating

from a herd if we'll properly test them,

especially bulls, so visit with a veterinarian

about that particular problem.

Now's the time to get those bulls ready

for this upcoming breeding season,

and I think you'll be glad when you do

the preg checking next spring.

We look forward to visiting with you again

next week on SUNUP's Cow Calf Corner.

 

Cotton Update

>>> We're out here at the Tipton Research Center

with our extension cotton specialist, Seth Byrd.

And Seth, we got kind of an early season frost

in the first part of October.

How did that impact the cotton crop?

>>> Yeah, so a lot of the cotton

that was most impacted by that frost

was some of the stuff that was a little behind.

We've talked all year about how that early

rain we had in the spring kind of delayed planting.

It's put us behind all year.

So, for the better part of our crop,

it probably wasn't as impactful.

A lot of that had already seen a harvest aid application,

but for some of the crop that we were hoping

to get to that point where the earlier planted crop was

that really better yield potential,

it kinda cut that season short.

So, it certainly made harvest aid decisions

from that point moving forward a challenge.

Like I said, the crop that saw applications

before the freeze looks great.

Since then, it's been a little more touch and go

with what we can do to get the crop ready to harvest.

>>> And one of the problems with that freeze

was that it was pretty unexpected, right?

>>> Yeah, so a lot of times when we see a freeze

in the forecast, we can make some applications

that are maybe earlier than we would normally make them,

but it can help us get some of that crop progressed

and leased off and bowl is open before the freeze happens.

The big issue with that is up until even that day

a large portion of our acres didn't have

a freeze in the forecast, and so that was

kind of a surprise freeze.

It caught a lot of people off guard,

so we weren't able to do some things

that we would normally want to do

with a freeze in the forecast.

>>> What are some of the things

that that really cold weather,

how does that actually impact the crop,

like with the bowl and everything?

>>> Yeah, so the two big things you see is

it effects in the bowl and effects in the leaves.

So with the bowls that get frost damaged,

they'll turn kind of a browner color,

like a pale brown and it's more of an even color.

Those bowls either won't open if they aren't very far along

or you will see some fiber quality issues.

So, either some brown stain to the lint.

And then with the leaves, you'll notice

a lot of upper third, upper halves of the plants,

the leaves that were left, so they had frost damage,

which basically means that our harvest aid chemicals

really won't work that well on those leaves.

So, it'll be really hard to remove them.

So, you kinda hope that for completely dried down

and desiccated you get some wind to knock them off,

but besides a physical actual thing

knocking the leaves off, you can't get any

good leaf drop from what we'd normally like to see

with our harvest aid products.

>>> So, going forward for that late planted cotton

for a lot of those cotton producers,

the outlook for the weather, it's gonna start

getting even a little bit more colder.

So, is there still time for some of those harvest aids

that producers can put out, or is it a little too late?

What should they do going forward?

>>> I think most of our crop at this point

has probably either seen an application

or just won't see one at all.

We're gonna wait for the next freeze.

So, another one of the problems that we're having

with the weather is like today where we see overcast skies,

higher than we'd like to see humidity,

so today we're like in the mid-70s for humidity.

Ideally for cotton harvest we'd like to see

the humidity a little bit lower,

particularly if you're using a stripper harvester.

So, we just have problems with moisture in the lint.

Overcast skies, that lint's not really

gonna dry out in time, so we kinda lose days,

even when, you know, we can get in the field,

it's not raining, but the conditions with the clouds

and the overcast skies and humidity

are also not real conducive to being

a good efficient clean harvest.

>>> All right, thanks Seth.

Seth Byrd, extension cotton specialist

here at Oklahoma State University.

(cheery country music)

 

Mesonet Weather

>>> Hi, Wes Lee with the weekly Mesonet weather report.

Cold winter-like precipitation was present this week,

improving soil moisture deficits in some areas,

and adding to marsh-like conditions in others.

The seven day rainfall map from Wednesday

shows all areas got something albeit some in the northwest

got it in a frozen format.

Rainfall amounts peaked in the southeast

with McAlester almost reaching the 10 inch mark.

The dry southwest and panhandle were mostly left out.

The seven day change in the 10 inch fractional water map

shows the nice green areas of improvement

in the south central areas

while the southwest got a little worse.

Soils in the eastern third of the state showed no change

because they couldn't get any wetter than they already were.

The cold temperatures have been record breaking

this week as well.

Highs on Wednesday struggled to get out of the 30's

in all but the far southeast.

If you look at the previous record lowest daily highs

for that date, you see many sites established

new low highs for the day.

Some of these records, such as Kingfisher and Stillwater

had held up since before statehood.

It looks like we have at least one more week

of below average temperatures to endure

before returning to normal conditions

according to the National Weather Service.

Gary is up next showing how the recent rain

have improved the drought map slightly.

>>> [Gary] Thanks Wes and good morning everyone.

Well mother nature has certainly supplied winter

a little bit early this year.

No one would expect this type of weather

later than November or even into December

but it did show up early

and mother nature's gonna do what she wants to do.

So we'll just have to deal with it.

Now we did see some improvements

in the drought monitor this week.

Normally we wouldn't see this great of an improvement.

But with the much colder weather,

the little bit of precipitation that we did get

in the southwestern parts of the state

did allow us to maybe ramp up those improvements

just a little bit.

So without further adieu let's get straight to the new

drought monitor map and see what we have.

Now out across the panhandle we still remain

with the mix of abnormally dry conditions

and moderate to severe drought.

We didn't see that much of an increase this week.

Mainly because of the cooler weather, again,

moving in so we decrease the evaporative demands.

Now across southwest Oklahoma into central Oklahoma

we saw a big reduction in mainly the abnormally dry

conditions, just a small amount of improvement

in the moderate drought category.

And across southeast Oklahoma we saw near (mumble)

drought conditions and also abnormally dry conditions.

So just a little bit remaining down in that area.

We see across the southeastern corner of the state

up into northeast Oklahoma huge rainfalls.

The top, of course, is 15.4 inches up

in the Adair County area.

Then we see the lack of rainfall

out across southwest Oklahoma.

Now that departure from normal rainfall

for the month of October,

we have from one to two inches down in the far southwest

and then around an inch out in the Oklahoma panhandle.

Across eastern Oklahoma from five, six, seven,

to as many as 11 inches above normal.

Those areas where it's 100 to more than 300 percent

normal rainfall for the month of October

across eastern half of the state.

So the arrival of winter a little bit early

did help the drought picture.

It has its other problems of course,

but for right now we just continue to watch

the precipitation patterns

and keep track of that drought as it goes forward.

That's it for this time.

We'll see you next time on the Mesonet Weather Report.

 

Going Back to Older Technology

>>> [Announcer] Managing profit margins to stay in the game,

that's the goal of farming any time,

but especially after years of disappointing wheat prices.

SUNUP's, Dave Deken is in Noble County to talk to a farmer

who is going back to the basics of raising wheat.

>>> [Cody] The shaft I was talkin' about you can see

from the tractor cab.

Do you see the seed cups?

You got the shaft runs all the way across

and you can see that turning from the tractor cab

and when you see that turning

you know you're puttin' seed out.

You don't have to worry about some

electrical wire coming loose causing it to not work.

>>> [Dave] Cody is farming the same land

his family has for generations.

He, his brother and father grow wheat

and all together they run about 3000 acres

across Noble County.

Just like many other wheat producers,

Cody says it seems like it costs a little more

to product a crop that is a little harder to market.

>>> [Cody] Yeah, the bad things we've had about

three years in a row that weren't very good.

There's been a good spot, here and there

but overall it's been pretty tough.

Between the markets and the weather

and the variables we can't really control.

>>> [Dave] When Cody was planning out the 2020 wheat crop

he decided to try something a little less flashy.

>>> [Cody] This year instead of putting a whole bunch of money

into that airdrill, I pulled these drills out

which were my grandfather's.

They were bought back in the early 90's

and it was whole lot cheaper to fix them up.

The one thing we can control out here

is our cost of our equipment.

Technology's nice and sure is fun to run

but it doesn't make the payments.

We don't get any more for our grain

whether we use $400,000 worth of equipment

or $40,000 worth of equipment to farm it.

The elevator doesn't give us any extra,

so I'm trying to control the cost of my inputs,

at least with the equipment that I'm using.

>>> [Narrator] Earlier this year,

Cody came across an old Gleaner L2 at a farm auction.

>>> And back in their day, these were quite a combine

in their day.

>>> And he bought it.

>>> One little bobtail load of wheat

will pay for that combine.

I've got a John Deere combine, an older one,

but the cost of repairs on it are so high,

when something does break down,

that I'm going back to something that's cheaper to maintain

and leave the John Deere sitting in the barn,

and they cost more to maintain.

So I'm just trying to cut down where I can

in these tough commodity times.

We don't need fancy technology to farm for cattle

and still harvest some crop,

but that was what founded this area

and that's what made all the old-timers,

that's what made 'em what they were.

And so, if we can cut down our costs,

then that gives us more margin

for maybe when things get better,

we can expand back into better technology,

but at least we'll still be in business

when that time comes, hopefully. (laughs)

>>> So John, where have we seen the technology growth

over the past, say, 30 years or so?

>>> Well, we've seen growth

in pretty much every sector of ag machinery.

We've seen a lot of growth in recent years in electronics,

incorporating electronics and machinery.

Some of that is due to trying to increase our capacity

and the things we do, increasing our precision.

But, some of those things are kind of regulatory

because of emission requirements by engines

and things like that.

So to go back as you're saying, in technology

you're gonna have to go back into your models

and production years, which means you're limited

in what's out there because they're not making

any more of a particular model

that was produced in the 90's or 70's, or whatever.

And so, because of that,

you gotta consider the kind of experience

of that particular machine and what it's been through.

Has it been rebuilt?

That kind of stuff.

>>> It is kind of nice to be in a cab

and be able to have all the monitors

of your quality that's going through the combine.

>>> Exactly, I mean, those things are really nice to have,

even if you're not necessarily directly using them

to influence your planting

or other parameters on your operation

but, if we look at just some of the basic things

like guidance systems,

auto-steer systems on larger operations.

A lot of those things really aren't there

for trying to initially improve your yields,

or maybe even they're going to, a certain extent,

be able to improve your efficiency in some times,

but really, it boils down to driver fatigue.

If you look at a tractor

like the one we've got behind us here

that's a little bit newer model,

if you look at the cab of that one,

and we go to a cab of one that's 20, 30 years older

the visibility, to be able to see things around you

as you're going through the field, if you're planting,

just the actual interior of the cab as far as the seat,

the farm mill controls, air conditioning, heat,

that kind of things.

You can last a whole lot longer

in the day with something like that

than you can with older equipment.

That driver fatigue really wears on your body over time.

>>> Okay, well, thank you very much, Dr. John Long,

Ag Engineer here at Oklahoma State University.

 

Market Monitor

>>> Kim, as we just saw,

producers really have to weigh all their options

for what they need on their operation.

>>> Yeah, but what works for one farmer

probably won't work for another

so, each farm is an individual unit.

I've talked to producers over the last week

that some say that, yes that's good

you gotta keep costs low, if you can do your own repair,

if you can use old equipment.

Depends on the size and the amount of management

you're willing to put into it.

Because if you run older equipment,

it's gonna take a higher degree of management

and you're gonna have more breakdown.

On the other side,

I've had producers say those GP units,

they're gonna more than pay for themselves

with their precision, you're not going over the land twice,

and you're covering it all and that precision is important.

So, It just depends on the situation.

It just depends on the farm,

the requirements and the manager.

>>> Let's dive into some of this weeks news now,

starting with the world markets.

What's the latest?

>>> Well, if you look at the world wheat market,

production's projected to be 28.1 billion.

That's just a slight record over the last years

28 billion bushels, we may or may not make that.

Australia crop, they continue to lower that,

they continue to lower the Argentine crop just a little bit.

They had a record, it's not a record now.

Russia, they're about 98% harvested.

We still don't have a good handle on the size of their crop,

and, of course, they've been increasing France's crop.

So a lot going on there,

but we've got a lot of wheat in this world.

>>> Let's talk about U.S. wheat exports

and kind of comparisons to last year.

>>> Well, exports have been going relatively well.

You look at U.S. wheat export sales,

they're 11% for all wheat above last year

but our outstanding sales,

that's that wheat that's in storage,

it hadn't been shipped yet.

It's 14% below last year.

Hard red winter wheat sale's 43% above last year.

That's really good.

We've already shipped it all, the majority of it.

We're 15% below last year's wheat in storage to be shipped.

Soft red winter wheat, 17% sales above last year,

2% below last year,

but all exports are below the five-year average.

>>> Let's talk about Russia now.

Any changes in their exports?

>>> Yeah, there's quite a bit going on in Russia.

Their exports are projected to be lower this year.

I've noticed some changes in the market

in the pricing system this last week

on export sales to Egypt, Russia was cut out,

they were underbid by Ukraine, by France, and by Romania,

so they didn't get any sale into Egypt

and what we're seeing is Russian wheat producers,

they built storage and they're starting to store their crop.

Last year, or in past years, they've had debt,

they needed that cash flow out.

They've lowered their debt, they've got the storage

and now they're storing wheat for later in the year

and I think that's gonna change our price patterns.

>>> Well, with that in mind,

do those Black Sea exporters then still control the prices?

>>> Yeah, I think they still have the major influence.

This last sale that Russia,

they were actually overpriced,

but Ukraine, they're harvesting a record crop.

They're gonna export more wheat than they did last year.

Ukraine came in and set that price along with France.

>>> So with that in mind,

will the world need Oklahoma's 2020 wheat?

>>> I think they will because we've got an excess of wheat

but we don't have an excess, I think,

we really have a slight shortage of milling quality wheat

and when we come into 2020,

I believe the world's gonna need our wheat

as long as we've got 60 pound test weight and 12.5% protein,

and where have you heard that before?

>>> Of course, right here.

All right, as always Kim, thanks a lot.

And that will do it for us this week.

We will see you next time at SUNUP.

(gentle music)

 

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