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Oklahoma State University
Stillwater, OK 74078

Phone: (405) 744-4065
FAX: (405) 744-5738
E-mail: sunup@okstate.edu

 

 

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Transcript for January 19, 2019

Transcript to come.

This show includes the following segments: 

  • Wheat & canola update
  • Mesonet Weather
  • Market Monitor
  • Red River Crops Conference Preview
  • Nitrogen & sulfur leaching in wheat
  • Cow-Calf Corner
  • Livestock Marketing
  • Shop Stop
  • Government shutdown effects

  

(upbeat music)

 

>>> Hello everyone, and welcome to SUNUP.

I'm Lyndall Stout.

Now is a great time of year to think ahead

and look at options for future crops in your fields.

Today, SUNUP's Dave Deken,

and our extension cropping system specialist Josh Lofton

show us a demonstration plot on seeding methods.

 

Wheat & canola update

>>> We've been fortunate lately

to get a lot of rain across the state,

and that means the wheat's growing,

and, Josh, you've kind of done a demonstration

here at Efaw of two different planting styles.

We have the traditional drill,

but then we also have another way.

>>> Yeah that's right, Dave.

What we wanted to do here,

is a little bit earlier this year.

We had all the ag extension agents out

across the state here in Stillwater,

and we've been asked for quite a few years,

is how do our planting practices,

as compared to our drill planted, our tradition planted,

if you will, how does it look compared to something

that is done more on our foraged dominated areas

where we broadcast and just incorporate

and we let the wheat come up that way.

If we get it to yield, we might run a combine across it

but yeah, the big focus was how much are we available

for the cattle, how quickly was it available?

Especially with the fall and the early winter we had.

>>> Now, speaking of that, we have had a pretty early winter,

we've had the rain, how are things looking

for Oklahoma wheat right now?

>>> Well, both wheat and canola look good.

You know we did have a lot cooler conditions early,

as well as our planting was a lot further delayed

because of some of our summer crops,

some of the heavier rainfall.

So, we saw a lot of the wheat, specifically,

but both the wheat and canola go out a little bit later

than we like, so heading into some of our cold spells

at the very beginning of the fall we were a little concerned

with them but we saw a lot of wheat fields

and canola fields that were more bare ground

than they were fields.

But we're actually seeing with these periods of 60 degrees,

followed by some periods of cool temperatures,

we're actually seeing quite a bit of the wheat,

as well as the canola kind of flush itself out,

get a little bit more canopy to it

and I'd say overall our winter crops look really good.

And this is highlighted by right over here

and you can kind of see, we actually took,

on this wheat we actually took our foraged samples

all the way to the ground just before Christmas

and even just during that period we've seen

that the wheat has been able to fully,

I don't want to say fully recover,

but it's been able to recover,

get a lot more biomass development from it

and it's hard to even see the spots

where we've clipped that.

So, both the wheat and the canola are enjoying this winter,

these good moisture conditions, the good 60 degree days

followed by some periods of cool weather

like we're experiencing this morning is really setting us

into a good spot.

>>> Now, Kevin, up here in about a month folks are gonna have

an opportunity to talk with you guys

about some of the crops going on across the state.

What's been traditionally the no-till conference

has a new name.

>>> Yeah, so what we're doing is the no-till conference

and the folks that have previously put on

the no-till conference, including our NRCS around the state

have joined forces with our commodity groups

to what we're calling the all-crops conference.

And we're gonna be talking about some really big topics,

as well as some commodity specific topics.

So, we have it broken down to where we have

a general session, typically in the morning,

and then we go into our commodity talks in the afternoon.

Scott Alls from USDS or USDA coming and talking

about feral hogs and then, like I said

we have all these commodity specific talks as well.

>>> Okay, thank you much, Josh,

and for more information on the all-crops conference

visit our website, sunup.okstate.edu.

(upbeat music)

 

Mesonet Weather

>>> Welcome to the weekly Mesonet weather report.

Wet conditions continue to persist in the state this week.

I've heard more how muddy is it jokes lately

than I care to recall.

The one day average four inch plant available water map

continues to show us at or near 100%.

100% would be an indicator of a soil

that is fully saturated.

One of the factors keeping us muddy

is the lack of sunshine.

As a whole, the state has been very cloudy

over the past several months.

Looking at December, we see the entire state,

except the panhandle region,

receive less sunshine than normal.

This was as much as 12% below normal in Altus and Jay.

January has continued this darker-than-normal trend.

The dark fill areas, shown here,

would be the normal percent sunshine for the state.

The blue line is what we actually have seen

since the first of the month.

These cloudy conditions mean we have higher humidity levels

and lower daily high temperature numbers than expected.

For example, on Tuesday, the forecasted highs

were about 10 degrees more than what we actually received

due to the lack of sunshine.

Next up is Gary, with even more rain information

along with some spring weather forecast.

>>> Thanks Wes, and good morning everyone.

Now with the great news last week

of complete removal of drought and dry conditions

across the state on the drought monitor,

we're gonna take a look at the rainfall so far,

or at least the moisture, from snowfall and rainfall

to begin 2019.

So as we look at the Mesonet total map

for the first couple of weeks of 2019,

we see some pretty good moisture from South Central

up through Northeastern Oklahoma

and scattered about the central and also Southeast Oklahoma.

Now we do have lower amounts across

western half of the state.

As we look at the percent of normal rainfall map

for that same time period,

we see that for most of these areas,

this amount of moisture for the dry part of January

is actually a tremendous amount,

from 100 to 200 depth to 500% normal

for some parts of the state.

As we take a look at the future,

for the February through April outlooks

from the Climate Prediction Center,

we see increased odds of above normal precipitation

across the western half of the state

but especially across the far western panhandle.

Now for temperatures, we see equal chances

of above, below, or near normal conditions.

So basically, climatological values in those areas.

So with the great moisture we've had thus far

and the good forecast,

the Climate Prediction Center doesn't

see any drought developing,

but we will continue to keep a close eye on it.

That's it for this time

and we'll see ya next time

on the Mesonet Weather Report.

 

Market Monitor

>>> Kim Anderson, our crop marketing specialist,

is here now.

Kim, why don't we just start this week

with an overview of what's happening in the markets?

>>> Well there's just not much happening.

You look at wheat, last week we closed at $4.99

on the KC March contract.

The range is 4.94 to 5.03.

On the bottom side of that, wheat prices

are basically just moving sideways.

Corn, same story.

We closed at 3.78 last week, 372 to 3.88,

narrow range there, sideways patterns.

Soybeans is probably the only crop

that does have an uptrend.

The last few week and a half or so,

we have been slightly lower on prices,

but on the long run, it's an upward trend.

Beans closed last week at 9.10, 8.91 to 9.10 range.

All narrow ranges and just not much happening.

>>> Well, when do you think something will start happening?

>>> Well, that's a tough question

because I think it's gonna depend on foreign countries.

You look at soybeans, corn, you're talking about China.

When are they gonna come in and buy US beans?

You got Brazil.

They're harvesting their second crop.

They've got weather problems down there.

So the information coming from there can have a big impact.

With wheat, you've got Russia and Ukraine.

Russia continues to find wheat to export.

You got Ukraine that's in that export market.

We need them to clean out their bins

so that we can get some export demand.

And then you've got Argentina and their corn crop.

So something's gonna happen.

When something happens negative or positive

from the import side in those other countries.

>>> Now that's kinda the next question.

When does it matter?

When's that kinda crucial time,

in terms of strategy and planning?

>>> Well for most producers, it doesn't matter right now.

There's nothing going on.

If you've got grain in storage,

wheat, corn, or cotton, or something like that,

course it matters what price is doing.

But, you're not going to be making any

wheat marketing decisions until we come out of dormancy

in February to early March.

The corn, bean, cotton, grain, sorghum, sesame,

decision is gonna be made in March, April.

So I think the important time periods

is a month or two down the road.

>>> Well let's kinda think about that.

What is the market offering for those 2019 crops?

>>> Well if you're looking right now

and put a pencil to things,

right now you can forward contract wheat

in most of Oklahoma for around 4.75.

You get to southern Oklahoma, it's around 4.50.

Corn, you can forward contract at 3.50,

3.99 in southern Oklahoma.

Sorghum, 3.45 at both North and South Oklahoma

and soybeans, around 8.30 to $8.40.

>>> Okay well, keep us posted and maybe something

will be happening soon.

>>> Next week.

>>> Okay, we'll

see you then, thanks a lot, Kim.

 

Red River Crops Conference

>>> We've got our annual Red River Crops Conference

that's coming up January 23rd and 24th and this one's

is gonna be our sixth crops conference this year

and we're very proud of the Red River Crops Conference.

The conference is structured where we have one day

that's committed totally to cotton.

So we're very excited to have Dr. Campiche come down

to kind of give us an update, what's going on at the

National Cotton Council, what they're looking at,

both from a marking strategy, international strategy.

Then we've got cotton fertility this year.

There's been a lot of work going on with cotton fertility.

I think it's gonna be a good topic area

in terms of practical application for this year.

We will start the day, on January 24th,

with wheat and canola production updates,

things that we need to look at in season,

being that those are winter crops.

We're gonna talk about wheat herbicide updates.

We talked about guar and sesame over the past

several years and it's been a good production topic.

To register for the conference, it's $25.

We kept it very affordable for guys to be

able to get into the conference.

It is, indeed, a crops conference,

where we center in on trying to help

our producers plan for success in southwest

Oklahoma and the Texas Rolling Plains.

(upbeat music)

 

Nitrogen & sulfur leaching in wheat

>>> Well we've seen a lot of rain throughout the state

and Brian, what does that mean for the soil?

>>> With all this rain, we have it coming down,

we have a couple things happening.

Our mobile nutrients, the nitrate, sulfate, chloride,

they are in the soil solution so when the soil solution

moves down or out, it will follow.

More than likely, we've had a significant amount

of nitrate movement, the NO3 and the sulfur

movement, the quad movement, down

in the profile or out of the profile.

Those things are going to be lacking as we get

into the springtime and green up, then we're going to

be low on nitrogen, probably low on sulfur, too.

In mobile nutrients, because we have so much soil moisture

and the moisture's cold, we're probably going to see

some deficiency potential in phosphorus

because when the soils are cool and moist the plant roots

can't get to it, same way as potassium.

If we're marginal or low on those two nutrients,

as we get warming up, we'll probably

see some deficiency symptomologies of those.

However, once we get warmed up, once he soil gets going,

the roots start growing better, we're gonna see

that root exploration, we'll see P and K deficiencies go.

Once the organic matter starts breaking down,

once the soil temperatures warm up, we're more likely

to see some sulfur deficiencies go away as

that organic matter is breaking down and releasing.

>>> So with all that, what does that mean for wheat

and canola? 

>>> With wheat and canola

right now, we'll just start with canola real quickly,

we're going to need to be getting on our canola

as soon as we can before we go into bolting.

With our nitrogen top dress, I'd definitely be

looking at some sulfur because, more than likely,

we've leached most of that sulfur out.

So let's make sure we have the sulfur on.

For our wheat, same scenario, on our high yielding wheat

I'd be thinking about some sulfur but, first and foremost,

we need to take care of our nitrogen issues.

We're going to be low on nitrogen

and we need to be taking care of that.

It's not going to be too late, everybody's worried.

Typically they're top dressing right now.

I know it's wet but we can still get on it.

We've had the research show we can delay that.

With this cold weather that's coming up in the he future,

if the ground's frozen enough or at least hard enough

to get across, it's not a bad idea to go ahead and get

your fertilizer out while you have some solid ground.

So have it out there and get it starting to incorporate

so when we get a green-up, that nitrogen's ready to go.

>>> Throughout the winter, we've had these days

when it's been 25 degrees then 60 degrees, that fluctuation.

What does that mean for the soil and for the wheat

and canola and our winter crops?

>>> It kind of gets the thing start

moving a little bit but not rapidly.

The wheat is a perfectly made crop

where it will take advantage of a couple

of warm days and start growing.

On soil wise, our soils have stayed cool and so

with these warm-ups, they get going a little bit,

the microbial activity kind of kicks up a little bit

but not really so the plants are growing for the

few days they can but the soil's not really releasing.

What we'll see is the probability of maybe some

responsiveness, wheat's going to start growing.

Which also means we have, still, a great

opportunity to get enriched strips out.

I'd still recommend, even if you're top dressing

in the next couple weeks, go ahead and put

out an enriched strip for later because we

just don't know how much nitrogen might

have been lost during this wet season.

Like I said, even if you're top dressing right now,

go ahead and put out an enriched strip and watch it

because it may pay dividends as we get closer

to hollow stem or into flag leaf

if you're wanting to make a protein application.

>>> All right, thanks, Brian.

Brian Arnall, Precision Nutrient Management Specialist

here at Oklahoma State University.

(upbeat music)

 

Cow-Calf Corner

>>> Last week on the Cow Calf Corner,

we visited with you about the three stages of calving.

Now stage two is the one that we

didn't spend enough time on.

Stage two is where, really, all the action is,

that's when the calf is delivered.

We define stage two as first beginning

when the water bag is expelled or,

in a lot of cases, it may be when we first see

the appearance of baby calves' feet and

stage two ends then when the calf is completely delivered.

Now, how long is stage two if this cow is

cow is going to deliver this calf unassisted, and everybody

ends up a healthy mother, and a healthy baby calf.

Research has been done looking at this pretty carefully,

both, in Montana at a USDA station,

and here at Oklahoma State University.

If you look at this particular table,

you'll see the results of that, where they carefully

timed the length of stage two, the time from the

appearance of the water bag, until the calf was delivered.

In the case of mature cows, in the USDA study,

the average length of time was 22 minutes.

It was longer for first calf heifers.

Those that had never had a calf before

hadn't had that birth canal stretched.

In the case of first calf heifers, both in the

Montana study, and here at Oklahoma State University,

the time was almost identical on the average.

54 minutes in one case, 55 minutes in the other.

So, I think this gives us a really good guideline

as to when we want to intervene with a cow

or especially a first calf heifer,

as we're watching them during this upcoming calving season.

If stage two isn't taking place,

if she isn't making real progress, in an hour,

in the case of that first calf heifer,

we probably need to get her in and examine her,

and see if there's a problem that we can solve.

If it's a problem that we can't handle real quickly,

we need to call our local large animal veterinarian,

and get professional help.

In the case of that older cow, it's going to happen in

about a half of an hour, or a little less.

So, that gives us our guidelines

as to how long to watch her.

Now, people may ask, why not just let 'em wait,

let 'em go as long as they need to?

Now, we know, from other research,

that if this part of stage two is allowed to go on

an extended period of time, we can have some real

health problems with that baby calf.

Perhaps he'll be acidotic, won't be able to

take in the colostrum as early as we need him to be.

Also, we know from research data,

that extended stage twos of calving will cause cows

to be slower to come back in to estrus,

to come back to have a chance to rebreed for next year.

So those are two issues that we need to consider,

as we're thinking about how long we're going to wait before

we actually bring her in and give her some assistance.

Remember, stage two of calving - about an hour in that first

calf heifer, half an hour or little less in that older cow.

I think that's a good situation to remember as

we go through this calving season.

Hey, we look forward to visiting with you again next week

on SUNUP's Cow Calf Corner.

 

Livestock Marketing

>>> Seems like the show we've talked a lot about

cold, wet conditions, and Derrell, that's just kinda

how the winter's been this year.

Is it impacting the cattle markets?

>>> It will probably show up as some measurable impacts,

as we go forward, I don't know that we've seen it yet.

We have a lot of the country has been hit with either

heavy snow, and that's effecting a lot of feedlot areas.

Many other areas that didn't necessarily get snow,

but got rain, and we have a lot of wet, sloppy conditions

that's effecting both feedlots as well

as cattle out in the country.

>>> What are you seeing in the cattle

beef markets going in to 2019?

>>> Well, as best we know at this point,

we're still kinda trying to get a beat on the market.

The prices we have, unfortunately we're still

getting prices at this point are relatively good.

We've seen some support, and again, bad weather

is actually a short term positive for fed cattle markets,

it delays those cattle reaching weight

and going in to the markets.

So we're seeing relatively strong markets there.

I think from a meat standpoint, we're still trying to

kinda get a beat on what the post holiday period is,

how good was meat movement, and that's gonna set the

stage then for beef demand here in the first quarter.

So, you know, we're not a 100 percent sure,

but it looks generally pretty positive at this point.

>>> We've been dealing with the government shutdown,

here lately, and your guy that needs numbers,

how is that impacting what you do?

>>> Well, you know, there's nothing more pathetic

than an economist with no numbers to work with.

So, (laughter) it's, I mean, I miss it,

but more importantly, the market misses it,

and producers miss it, and that's what's important.

What I do is just to try to you know,

help get that information to them,

and provide some, you know, analysis, to go with that.

So, these effects accumulate, so the longer we go on,

we may eventually get all these reports,

but with the delays, and there's a lot of unknowns

right now, so we missed many crop reports in January.

We didn't send out the cattle surveys that normally

go out in early January, to do the monthly cattle

and feed report, and more importantly,

to do the January one cattle inventory report.

We only get that once a year, we may get a partial

mid-year update at times, but, that January cattle

inventory report is a very important one that really

gives us a summary of what really did happen last year

and sets the stage for what we can expect this year.

So, we really need that report.

It will be delayed, I presume at some point we will get it.

>>> What does all of that mean for the Oklahoma ag producer?

>>> Well, I think right now obviously we're working

with a more uncertain environment.

We're probably gonna see a little more volatility

in these markets.

Again, fortunately, we are still getting price data.

What we're missing is the production data, if you will.

The survey-based data that NAS does,

those kinds of things, and so I wouldn't make a lot

of drastic changes in your plans at this point.

If you're thinking about doing some things

I probably would hold off a little bit until we do get

caught up a little bit on this information

and verify that what you were thinking

is what you want to do.

But I wouldn't react terribly negatively right now.

Just kinda stay the course

and hopefully we get back on track here.

>>> Okay, thank you much.

Derrell Peel, Livestock Marketing Specialist

here at Oklahoma State University.

(cheerful music)

 

Shop Stop

>>> Hi, welcome to Shop Stop.

We want to spend a little bit of time talking about

AC tools and polarity.

>>> Okay, what is polarity?

You've got a plug, and it's got two prongs, for example,

and you've got a plug that's got three prongs, for example,

and the polarity is determined by which one

is the neutral, and which one is the hot.

>>> So you want to make sure that when you're plugging

stuff in, that with your plugs as they match like this,

that it'll only go into the outlet in one way.

>>> Correct, 'cause one of these spades is wider

than the other one, and if you go to your recep,

well, one of the slots is larger than the other slot,

and that will only let it go in one way,

and this larger slot is your neutral.

>>> So the important thing to remember is when you're

working on stuff, that we're always gonna switch

the hot line off, not the neutral.

>>> Right.

So let's say that this cord got damaged

and was cut right here, and the plug was gone,

how could we determine whether or not this was,

which was neutral and which was hot on this?

If you look at the cord, it has ribs on one side

and smooth on the other.

That would determine that the ribbed side is the

neutral side, and the non-ribbed side,

the smooth side, is what we'd call a hot side.

So then you could reattach a new plug to it.

>>> Yep, and so these are set like that.

If you've got the plug with the ground on it,

then it's only gonna go into the outlet one way,

and the ground plug is gonna dictate

which one goes into the neutral slot.

>>> So you've got three prongs and two prongs,

and you'll notice on some of your power tools

they'll have a three-prong or a two-prong,

and the two prongs can only go on what we call

a double-insulated tool.

And the double-insulated tool is signified

by that double square right there.

If your tool has that, that means it's double-insulated.

>>> So there's a few tips on polarity,

and how tools are wired.

We'll see you next week on Shop Stop.

 

Government shutdown effects

>>> We've had the longest federal government shutdown

in US history, and here to talk about what it might mean

for Oklahoma ag producers is Amy Hagerman,

our ag policy specialist.

And Amy, it's been an interesting few weeks, hasn't it?

>>> It definitely has.

You know, this was some uncertainty that we really

didn't need right now coming off of sort of

the farm bill debate, and the trade wars in 2018.

This has caused some uncertainty for producers

and for a lot of other people right now.

>>> It definitely has.

When you kinda hone in, it's affected a lot of things,

but when you hone in specifically for agriculture,

what kind of guidance are you offering

for farmers and ranchers?

>>> Yeah, absolutely.

This affected several different areas

for our farmers and ranchers.

So first and foremost, it's affecting the operations

of Farm Service Agency county offices,

which is where a lot of people get their marketing loans,

and they can't get in to set those processes in motion

or to get payments off of those.

We're coming into planting decision time.

It's affected paperwork that needs to go to lenders

right now, so all of those things are affecting

our agricultural producers during this shutdown.

Another area is data.

Producers need data on price expectations,

and they can't get the data right now

in order to prepare for this next season.

>>> And this is a really, you know, during this kind of

these winter months, it's a real planning time,

early paperwork and organizing time,

We talked about FSA, USDA, what other agencies

might impact our producers?

>>> Yeah, absolutely.

Recently in the news it was announced that part of the IRS

is coming back, but of course, there's gonna be

some backlog there as they come back

and try to process some things.

For our ag producers, too, you've got a combined effect.

With USDA office closed, they can't get their 1099's

in order to complete their taxes

as early as they might be able to.

So this is gonna create some crunch for our farmers,

for our farm accountants, as we get closer to the deadlines

for tax season, as well.

>>> So what can we do?

It's kind of a, you kinda feel helpless, really.

>>> Yeah, I think really just have some patience.

As we work through this process, go ahead and move forward

with your planning as best you can.

Get all your paperwork together and be ready to move

and then just have some patience with those agents

whenever they come back to work, because they're gonna

have a quite a backlog of things.

Also, there've been some extended deadlines,

and that's gonna help, as well.

If you weren't able to get your market facilitation payment

application in prior to the government shutdown,

they're going to extend that deadline.

Originally, it was January 15th, but they're gonna

extend it by the number of working days

that the shutdown has gone on.

So there will be some extended timeframes

to get some things in, as well.

And also, I think it's gonna push back some deadlines

for our farm bill programs, as well.

So there might be some additional time

for decision-making there.

>>> Okay, so patience is the key.

>>> Patience is the key.

>>> Okay, well, keep us posted, Amy.

>>> Alright, thank you.

>>> Thanks a lot.

And that does it for SUNUP this week.

We'll see you next time.

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