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Phone: (405) 744-4065
FAX: (405) 744-5738
E-mail: sunup@okstate.edu

 

 

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Transcript for December 8, 2018

Transcript to come.

This show includes the following segments: 

  • Farm Bill update
  • Cow-Calf Corner
  • Livestock Marketing
  • Mesonet Weather
  • Beef milk vs. dairy milk
  • Forage & redcedar trees
  • Market Monitor
  • Food Whys

  

(country music) 

Farm Bill update

>>> Hello everyone, and welcome to Sunup, I'm Lyndall Stout.

Congress has reached a big milestone with the Farm Bill.

To get us up to speed and to learn

what's in store for the rest of the year,

here's our extension Ag Policy Specialist, Amy Hagerman. 

>>> Right well, last week, we actually

had an agreement and principal

out of the conference committee on the Farm Bill

which is really big news for us.

This means that the versions of the Farm Bill

from the House and the Senate

that were passed in the summer,

and then has been under discussion with

the conference committee since September the 5th,

is finally , they've worked out all the details,

they've worked out the differences between

the two bills, and we now have a reconciled

Farm Bill that's ready to be scored

by the Congressional Budget Office,

ready to be introduced for a full floor vote

in the House and the Senate, and if it passes

those two sides, then it goes to the President

for signature, and this is really good news.

>>> Let's kind of talk about some

of the major parts of the compromise

that Oklahomans in particular might be interested in.

>>> Yeah so, a couple of pretty big things came out of this.

First is that, crop insurance remains really robust.

This was something that was called for

when they did the listening sessions

associated with the Farm Bill, prior to writing it.

And that remains there for Oklahoma producers

who utilize those crop insurance programs.

Another thing is that the rest of the commodity farm

safety net was actually really strengthened.

There's potentially going to be a yield update,

which could be good news for our counties

that had a lot of drought the last time the yields were set.

Also on the conservation side,

that was an area where there was some controversy

and some pretty big differences between

the two versions of the Farm Bill.

The House version of the Farm Bill proposed

eliminating the Conservation Stewardship Program,

but it looks like in the version of the bill

coming out of the conference committee,

that the Conservation Stewardship Program

and the Environmental Quality Incentives Program

are both going to be available in the coming five years.

And then finally, one of the areas

that there was a lot of controversy around

were these mandatory work requirements

for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,

or SNAP, formally known as Food Stamps.

This had caused a lot of division

and some delay as they worked out those differences,

but it looks like those work requirements

are not going to be in this version

of the Farm Bill that's going to come out.

And that means a couple of different things:

One, it means that it's a little bit more

of a bipartisan Farm Bill, that looks

a little more like the Senate version that came out.

It also means that there's a pretty good chance

we'll get this Farm Bill passed by the end of the year.

>>> So, between now and the end of the year

to get that done, what needs to happen?

There is quite a bit of work between now and then.

>>> There's quite a bit of work and not very

many days between now and then.

So, the last day of the two congressional sessions

are the 13th and the 14th for the House and the Senate.

So we need to get this bill introduced

probably by early next week at the latest,

and it needs to pass both the House and the Senate.

And then the President needs to sign it

hopefully by the end of December

in order to get this in process

and to be able to have sign-ups for ARC and PLC

and the other programs in 2019.

>>> Well, let's hope they get to that.

Some great progress though,

at least there's been that much.

>>> Absolutely, absolutely, this is really good news,

this is a nice end of year treat for us.

>>> Exactly.

Okay Amy thank you for getting us up to speed,

and we'll see you again soon.

>>> Thank you.

(country music)

 

Cow-Calf Corner

>>> One of the important decisions

that cow-calf operations have to make each year,

is how many replacement heifers

do we save back to put into a breeding season

to become replacements for those cows

that we eventually either lose or have to cull?

Well there's some data that kinda helps us

give a little starting place on making that calculation.

If you look at this particular graphic it comes from

the Dickinson Experiment Station up in North Dakota.

Where they kept track over a 20 year period of time

the percentage of cows in that heard by age categories.

In other words, if you look over on the left hand side,

you'll see that about 17%

of that heard each year on the average

were those two year olds having their first babies.

So that gives us a starting place as to what to expect

we need in order to keep our cow heard

at about the same number year after year.

But when we're selecting and keeping back replacements

to go to their first breeding season,

we want to keep back more than that to make sure

that we have enough to fill the slots

that are going to be available in that heard.

If we're going to take good care of our replacement heifers,

say they're gonna gain a pound and a half to two pounds

per head per day on a good growing program,

then we probably need only about another 10%

or in this case about two to three more heifers

out of that 17, if we got 100 cow heard,

only about two to three more in order to get enough,

a high enough percentage of them bred.

I'm always going to expect about 10%

of our replacement heifers to not breed

in that first breeding season,

and those are the one's we certainly want to cull anyway.

If we're gonna grow them well,

about 20 heifers in order to make

that 17 for this 100 cow heard.

However, if we choose to feed these heifers

at a lower rate, grow them more slowly,

rough them through the winter so to speak,

on a lower ration, then we better expect

to keep more in order to have enough

of them bred early in the breeding season.

Those situations where they're growing

at less than a pound a day throughout the course

of the winter, then I think we better keep

another half of the heifer crop, another 50% in other words,

in order to make sure we have enough

because we'll have fewer of them cycling

going into the breeding season.

And so in our 100 cow heard example,

then we're looking at keeping another eight to nine heifers

rather than just two or three in order to make sure

that we've got enough of them that will get bred.

And we're letting mother nature

actually do our heifer selection for us this way.

Those that get bred we keep.

Those that don't then we have to sell

as stocker heifers that are still young enough

to go into a feedlot situation.

So I think this will help you in terms of deciding

how many heifers you're gonna keep back

and put into a breeding season so that you have

that 17% that are actually bred and going to calve

at the upcoming calving season each year,

and that'll help maintain heard size over the long run.

Hey, we look forward to visiting with you

again next week on SUNUP's Cow-Calf Corner.

 

Livestock Marketing

>>> It's been an interesting season for cull cow markets.

And Derrell, what's been playing into that?

>>> Well we probably put in a seasonal low here recently.

Normally, November is the seasonal low,

but this year's been unusual because these markets,

the cull cow market usually stays strong through the summer,

through August and then starts to drop off in September

and October and move into that seasonal low.

This year, the market dropped much earlier.

Really from May on, cull cow prices

were well below year earlier levels,

and so we didn't really know what to expect

for the seasonal low

'cause we got low so early. 

>>> Right.

>>> It did drop a little bit more here in November,

and that probably is the low, but it kind of sets the stage

then for what to expect as we go forward from here.

>>> I love that phrase, probably the low.

What's really been impacting those changes?

>>> Well there's a couple of things, I think.

Clearly, supply is part of the issue.

Cull cows go into that, basically that hamburger market,

lean trimmings market, and those prices

have been low this year.

And part of that I think is a function of supply.

Cow slaughter has been larger this year.

We knew beef cow slaughter would be up

again as it has the last three years.

Dairy cow slaughter turned out to be

a little bit bigger than expected,

so total cow slaughter right now is running

about 7% above a year ago, and that's bigger

year over year than last year.

So supply is part of it.

There may be a demand component, as well.

The ground beef market may be the one aspect of beef

that is seeing some competition from pork and poultry.

It's not really clear, but we've marveled

at how strong beef demand has stayed on in total,

but the ground beef market may be seeing more

of that sort of dollar menu competition

with chicken and other things,

and so that may be part of the issue, as well.

>>> So here we are, the last month of the calendar year.

Are cattle and beef markets kind of putting their foot

on the clutch and just kind of coasting on in to 2019?

>>> Well I think we're getting close to that time.

We sort of do that.

If you look at beef demand and beef buying.

All the holiday buying is pretty much in place now,

so beef markets are gonna kinda coast out the year,

see how we move beef, and then we'll sorta

pick it up in January.

Cattle markets are getting close to that as well,

I think, as far as especially feeder cattle markets.

We probably don't have quite all of the fall run done yet.

We've delayed it a little bit with some of the weather

issues we've had this fall, but by and large

I think we're gonna, again, sorta coast out

and then there'll be folks that'll be saving some calves

till after the first of the year for tax reasons,

or whatever, and we'll see these markets pick up

again about mid-January.

>>> Where are we with the overall markets right now

in the beginning of December?

>>> Well, I think, you know,

we're in pretty good shape, actually.

Boxed beef has been relatively strong.

Kinda flat here lately, but that was after

having strengthened a bit.

Fed cattle prices have pushed back up a little bit higher

so we're up around 117, 118 for cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder markets are relatively strong,

although they've been quite volatile this fall.

A little bit up and down.

Some of that's due to the volatility in the futures markets.

Some of it has really been these weather challenges

we've had this fall.

Week to week we've had these cold fronts come through

and that really impacts these markets a little bit.

But all in all I'd say we're in pretty good shape

at the end of the year.

>>> Okay, thank you much.

Derrell Peel, Livestock Marketing Specialist

here at Oklahoma State University.

(optimistic music)

 

Mesonet Weather

>>> Welcome to the weekly Mesonet weather report.

Wheat grown for forage is one of Oklahoma's

most important crops.

There are several factors that determine how successful

wheat is as a fall forage.

The most important is probably planting date.

Usually the earlier you plant, the higher your potential

fall forage yields will be.

The second important factor would be moisture.

This year lack of moisture has not been a problem.

Even with early-planted wheat that was adequately watered,

many producers have not been happy with the amount

of forage produced to date.

Temperature is probably next in importance

for wheat growth, and this is where we have been struggling.

If we look at air temperatures in October

we see that it was about three or four degrees

below normal in most of the wheat-growing areas.

November was much cooler, with temperatures running

six or seven degrees below normal.

The first week of December has continued this

cooler-than-normal trend.

Soil temperatures understandably follow

air temperature trends.

If we look at October soil temperatures at a four-inch depth

under sod, we see they were one to two degrees

below normal in the west.

In November, they dropped to as much as six degrees

below normal.

There is probably not much time left for wheat to recover

for fall forage.

However, spring forage and grain yields still look

promising at this time.

Now here's Gary with more information

on rainfall and forecast.

>>> Thanks, Wes, and good morning, everyone.

Well, we're on to December so I thought I'd give you

a quick recap of November, and then take a look

into the future.

Now obviously, we were colder than normal during November

which is sort of what we've been seeing

over the last few months, but we're also much dryer

than normal, which is a little bit different

because August, September, and October were pretty wet.

So let's go to the Mesonet maps, see what we have.

As we take a look at the November Mesonet totals

we can see much of the western half, and even farther

into eastern Oklahoma had less than an inch of rain

for November which is a dry month normally.

That's pretty dry.

Now east Oklahoma's a little bit better

with an inch to two inches in some cases,

and down in far southeast Oklahoma as much as

three to four inches.

But still, that is below normal.

As we go on to the November percent of normal rainfall

totals you can see much of the state from 10 to 20

to 30 to 40, maybe up to 50 to 60% of normal,

but way too many reds and oranges on that map.

In fact, there was no spot in the state that was above

normal for the month of November.

Again, that's a stark difference from what we've seen

from August through October.

The outlook show increased odds of above-normal temperatures

across the entire state.

They're not greatly increased odds,

but they are increased a little bit.

And then we see increased odds

of above-normal precipitation as well.

So you put that together where we have the current

drought situation, and we see from the drought outlook

for December no changes, basically, where the drought

is in northeastern Oklahoma, but also no areas

of development or intensification as well.

So no changes in where the drought is,

but no developing drought either.

So we can hope for December a little bit more rainfall

than what we got in November.

We definitely need that across much of the state,

but especially up in northeastern Oklahoma

where they can eventually knock that drought out.

That's it for this time.

We'll see you next time on the Mesonet weather report.

 

Beef milk vs. dairy milk

>>> Now there have been a few times

that my wife and I have been driving down the road

and our daughters will be in the back

and they will see a beef cow on the side of the road

and they will say, "Dad is that where

the milk that we drink comes from?"

And I'll say, "Well, no, not really."

But, Dave is there a difference between beef milk

and dairy milk?

>>> Not a lot. Beef cow doesn't produce

near as much milk as a dairy cow.

You know a dairy cow is going to produce

six to eight gallons of milk a day.

A beef cow maybe two to four.

As far as composition, a dairy cow's milk

is going to contain about 4.8% lactose

and its a very consistent lactose concentration.

Almost never changes. In that gallon of dairy milk,

you can have about 3.4% fat and about 3.4% protein.

The only difference in a beef cow milk

is that it's more concentrated in fat.

It's going to be closer to about 4% fat.

>>> So of all of that, how does the,

I want to use the word moisture content,

but the water amount play into that?

>>> Yeah, it's mostly water

and that's why those nutrient values sound kind of low.

>>> Right.

>>> Because milk is 87% water.

Okay. If you take all the water out,

you are left with a pound of powdered milk

>>> Wow.

>>> Or concentrated nutrients. So it's 87% water.

Now you've got a pound left in that jug

that's 37% lactose.

>>> Right.

>>> 31% fat and about 26% protein.

So you add all those up, and other than the minerals,

which would be about 6%, you're right at a hundred.

So it is extremely concentrated in nutrients.

>>> How much input is there to make that same amount of fluid?

>>> You know, milk production is actually--

the production of milk itself is actually quite efficient.

So for example, to produce this one more gallon of milk

a day in a beef cow, we think it takes somewhere around

2-1/2 pounds of high-quality grass hay.

Well, it's 2-1/2 pounds of a dry hay,

to produce one pound of the powdered nutrients, right?

>>> Yeah.

>>> So, not including the water.

>>> Yeah.

>>> If you put that on a corn equivalent,

so concentrate feed for example,

about a pound and a quarter of corn

to produce one pound of concentrated nutrients.

That's efficient.

>>> Wow.

>>> Okay. Now, so the issue isn't the efficiency

of milk production itself.

The issue is the conversion of pounds of milk

produced to calf weight gain.

And that's where we run into problems

in the beef cattle industry, particularly let's say

in the Summertime when you have a high-quality forage,

you are kind of swapping more milk

and increasing milk intake of the calf

and reducing high-quality forage intake.

That conversion is not as efficient.

>>> Very interesting. Well, and we're out here

at the North Range covering this right now.

You have an event coming up here in, I guess, next week.

>>> We do. December 18th. So we're going to have a field day

and what we're going to focus on

is efficiency of feeding hay.

We're going to look at different types of hay feeders

and actually demonstrate hay waste

and also we're going to have a fencing demonstration.

>>> So the fencing with the swords and all that?

No, no—

>>> Not that kind of fencing.

Electric fencing.

>>> Oh, wow, boy!

(laughs)

>>> Now there's an Olympic Sport.

>>> Yeah.

>>> Yeah. 

>>> Okay.

>>> That would be interesting.

>>> Well, thank you very much, Dave, and for more information

on that event go to our website www.sunup.okstate.edu

(lively music plays)

 

Forage & redcedar trees

Over the years, Eastern redcedar has moved

into what was prairie land and Laura

cedars have impacted forage production in those lands.

>>> Yeah, so Eastern redcedar

is really growing in a lot of areas

that were historically grasslands.

And so as the amount of cedar increases on a pasture--

so say you had 80% cedar, you're going to have less and less

understory vegetation growing.

So, if you did have 80% of your area

covered by Eastern redcedar, you could expect to grow

about a quarter of the forage that you would

if you didn't have any cedar growing.

So if you're in an area that grows

four or five thousand pounds per acre,

which is pretty typical for Central Oklahoma.

You could get a thousand to twelve hundred pounds

when you have a lot of cedar.

Now, if you only had about 40% of your area

covered in cedar, you would still need to cut

your stocking rate by about a half

because your forage production would be

about half of what you would expect

if you didn't have any cedar.

So it can have a a huge impact on forage production

for livestock producers.

>>> So not only does it impact the actual plant,

but the cedars are said to take up a lot of water

throughout, even during drought time?

>>> Yeah, and so,

part of what happens is when you have an open grassland,

and you have cedar that are kind of spaced out,

the area between those cedars

where there's actually grass growing,

those grass plants are more stressed for water

because they're competing with a big tree

that has a really extensive root system.

And so during drought that competition is even more fierce,

and so those plants experience drought even worse,

than if you didn't have those trees competing with them.

And so you can expect that those plants will go dormant

more quickly and when they go dormant,

of course their forage quality drops pretty quickly.

So many of our range grasses can have 14,

15, 16% crude protein when they're actively growing,

but when they go dormant it'll drop to 4 or 5%,

so it can make huge differences

and when protein supplementation is one of the most

expensive parts of livestock production.

It's a pretty big deal if your plants start

to grow dormant earlier than what they could

potentially stay actively growing.

>>> How long would it take for quality forage

to get back into a former cedar area?

>>> So, it really just depends on how much rain you get.

You could expect to have some grass growth in the next year,

but you probably won't have, you know, a really well

established grass land for at least two growing seasons.

Now, if you have a really dry year,

that it could take quite a bit longer than that.

>>> When could that reach talking rights?

I mean, that's kind of

a goal for many producers would say evacuate

the land of cedars.

>>> Yeah, so, what you can do to answer that question,

is after you've cleared cedar, you can go ahead.

If you have cattle in the pasture and you've just cleared

part of it, you can go ahead and

put in a grazing exclosure, so all you do is get

a cattle panel and some T posts and just exclude

a certain area so you can really start to see

how quickly its recovering.

That will allow you to see how quickly the grass recovers

when there's absolutely no grazing.

You know if animals are or any are in the pasture, they're

gonna be grazing this site, regardless

and that will really help you to calculate stocking rates.

And if you need more information about how to

accurately calculate stocking rates, we have some really

great fact sheets about that.

>>> Okay, thank you much Laura.

>>> You're welcome.

>>> For more information on that, go to our website

sunup.okstate.edu.

 (guitar playing)

 

Market Monitor

>>> Kim Anderson, our crop marketing specialist is here.

Now, Kim, you're cautiously optimistic about wheat prices,

give us some idea why.

>>> Well I think it all starts with coming into this

last marketing year in June and July.

We were very low, very tight stocks of protein and wheat,

million crop, their weight was nearly non existent.

If you look at the production for 2018-2019

around the world, its about 1% less than the use.

If you look at the World hard wheat

that's hard red spring and hard red winter,

wheat production for the major exporters are the productions

that's supposed to be 7% less than the use.

And if you look at the U.S hard red winter wheat production

supposed to be 13% less than use.

So, if we use more than we produce and we were

short on protein coming into the 2018-19,

then we gotta be short on protein, and we still

have pretty good price we've come into that.

Another is if you look at exports,

U.S hard red winter wheat exports are projected to

be only 3% less than last year.

Now I think this next was a report will probably

raise that a little bit but it will still

probably be a single digit.

Right now our current exports sales are 36% below last year

so those sales are gotta pick up sometime and that's

probably in the January, February time period.

And another reason is Russian exports.

Russian exports are projected to be 16% less than last year,

their current sales and shipments are 20% above last year

so that's gotta come to halt and

I think ours is gonna take off.

And then you look at Australian Wheat production, its the

lowest it's been since 2007.

>>> So what was last years price pattern then?

>>> Well if you look at last years price pattern,

we came into January about $3.50, $3.60 wheat.

By May 1 or mid May, we were, $5. We got a big rally,

and I think that rally was anticipation of the quality

of the 2018 crop.

>>> And could the 2018-19 price pattern,

follow the previous year?

>>> Its possible and I'm expecting it too.

That's my cautious optimism there is that we're

gonna come in January, February.

Demands gonna pick up, the foreign markets, especially

the Russian, Ukraine wheat, that high quality wheat is not

gonna be available in prices.

What we get, you know, from $3.50, a $1.50 price increase,

I don't think so but we could get $0.75 to a $1

between January 1 and June 1.

>>> Okay, let's hope so.

Kim, thanks a lot. We'll see you next week.

(guitar playing)

 

Food Whys

>>> You may have noticed recent changes to the format

of the nutritional label, but you might not have noticed

that there have been changes to the

serving size information as well.

So why the change?

When the nutritional label was created in 1993,

the FDA used surveys of food consumption that have

been conducted in the 70's and 80's to help established

the serving size. However,

recent consumers data has shown, that people's

eating patterns have changed.

So we better reflect that reality.

The refs amount used to established the serving sizes,

have changed as well, some serving sizes

have gotten larger, for example, ice cream has increased

from 1/2 cup to 2/3 cup. However, some serving sizes

have gotten smaller, for example, yogurt has

decreased from 8 ounces to 6 ounces.

Something else to keep in mind, is that the changes to the

serving size are also influenced by the size of the package.

Foods that have been labeled as 1 1/2 servings before,

are now required, to be labeled as one serving because

consumers are more likely to eat or

drink them in one sitting.

For example, both 12 ounce and 20 ounce

bottles of soft drinks are now required to be labeled

as single serving.

So the changes to the serving size information are

meant to provide consumers with more information

about what they're actually eating so that they

can make healthier choices.

For more information, please visit

sunup.okstate.edu or visit

fapc.biz or download the FACP app.

 

>>> That will do for us this week.

Remember you can find us anytime at sunup.okstate.edu

and also follow us on YouTube and social media.

I'm Lyndall Stout, have a great week everyone!

And remember Oklahoma agriculture starts at SUNUP.

(guitar plays) 

 

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