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SUNUP TV 
141 Agriculture North
Oklahoma State University
Stillwater, OK 74078

Phone: (405) 744-4065
FAX: (405) 744-5738
E-mail: sunup@okstate.edu

 

 

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Transcript for October 13, 2018

Transcript to come.

This show includes the following segments: 

  • Home precautions for wildfires
  • Market Monitor
  • Mesonet Weather
  • Upcoming fire workshops
  • The new USMCA Trade Agreement
  • Cow-Calf Corner
  • Livestock Marketing

  

(upbeat guitar music)

Home precautions for wildfires

>>> Hello everyone and welcome to SUNUP!

I'm Lyndall Stout.

With all of this green around us,

the threat of wildfires may be the last thing

on your mind right now.

But as we know all too well,

conditions can change pretty fast in Oklahoma,

and winter is right around the corner.

Today we begin with our Extension Fire Ecologist, John Weir,

to learn more about what you could do

right now to lower your risk.

>>> All the rain that we've had

this latter part of the summer,

we're still a couple of weeks into October,

we're mowing lawns.

Everything is green.

It's just not the typical Oklahoma fall going into winter.

But, it's gonna change.

We'll get some freezing weather

and this green grass will go dormant.

And then dormant fields burn very well.

And so it's something that we need to be thinking about.

It's something that really should be on our minds

year-round about what can we do to protect our valuables,

our families, our homes, and our properties

in the event of a fire.

>>> Let's talk about this place here,

this is typical of what we would see around Oklahoma.

What kind of things do you observe

when you look around this area?

>>> Around this house, they've kept the lawn mowed short.

Part of it is there's some different.

We call ignition zones,

zones that you have greatest concern about.

And the first zone is that

first ignition zone's about

that first 30 feet around your house.

That's a big part of it is

looking at that close proximity

'cause that's where most fires start is

in that close proximity.

So again, we want to keep fuels down.

We want to keep trees trimmed up.

We want to plant shrubbery and stuff

that's not flammable or not as flammable.

We need to think about mulches

that we use in the gardens

and stuff that we have around our flower beds,

and stuff around our homes,

and make sure that it's non-flammable,

or we keep it moist in really dry conditions,

so it's not flammable.

And just little things that we don't think about

like on a deck here,

that you make sure that you cover up the edges of it

so stuff can't blow and collect underneath

and cause it to be flammable,

also embers doesn't get underneath there.

So again, they got this deck all covered up

so there's nothing can blow under it,

nothing can grow under it.

Embers aren't gonna blow into it,

and also if you look at it close enough,

it's made out of non-flammable building materials.

And that's another good thing that we can think about.

But again, deck doesn't have to be that.

It can be made out of wood,

but we just want to think about covering things up.

>>> What other things should we look out around here?

>>> There's some other things we can look at.

So again, here within this house,

they've got trees planted back away from the house,

so they're not growing up into the eve,

so they could possibly light or fire up in there.

But also you have to take into consideration

what kind of trees they are.

Again oak tree back there,

it has leaves on it and right now,

you may think it's flammable,

but it's pruned up.

The grass is mowed short.

Fire shouldn't ever even get up in that

and plus during the winter months

whenever we're more flammable,

those leaves are gone.

Now the next thing to worry about is

where those leaves gonna accumulate.

So then that's a thing we may have to worry about.

Raking leaves, moving leaves out of guttering

where they accumulate next to the home

or something like that

where they can cause a problem,

that's where they need to work with that.

Propane tanks are another thing,

and we want to make sure we keep them

the proper distance from the home.

Also, we want to make sure we keep all the grass,

everything down around it.

A lot of the times it's good to either

use herbicide to remove vegetation from around it,

put it on a gravel pad something that's non-flammable

just so it doesn't heat up.

But the main thing is

is getting it to proper distance away from the house.

>>> There's lots to see and talk about of course

is kind of limitless.

But you and your team as we continue walking

and talking and colleagues from other states

have put together a pretty comprehensive guide.

In the last few months?

>>> Yes we have.

We got it out this summer about preparing

your ranch and your farm for a wildfire.

'Cause that's something we've gotta do.

And we not only try to look at your house,

but also out buildings, hay storage.

Having a plan for evacuation of livestock if that's a care.

'Cause again, in the last several years,

we've had some incidents

where people have been severely injured

and even killed trying to evacuate livestock.

And again, we need to think about

what is the proper way to do that,

when is the proper time to do it,

when's the proper time to just walk away,

'cause again it's not worth your life.

There's not enough firefighters in this state

to come help and set at everybody's house

and to do all that kind of stuff.

So you've gotta try to make sure that your house

is able to stand alone, because again, the other thing is,

is that fire going to occur when you're at home?

We don't know, and so you need to think about,

"If I'm not here, can this house, this barn,

this equipment storage area, can it survive without me?"

And that's what we should strive to do.

>>> Well, we're glad we're talking about it today.

We want to share the guide with our viewers,

so thank you very much for this information today, John.

>>> You bet.

>>> And for a link to the guide, we have it on our website

sunup.okstate.edu.

(upbeat country guitar music)

 

Market Monitor

>>> Seems like for the longest time we've included Russia

in our discussions about wheat, and Kim,

there's been news about Russia again this week.

>>> Well, the reason Russia's in the market is because

they are clearly the number one exporter of wheat,

and not only wheat,

but hard red winter and hard red spring wheat.

Right now I think the market's moved from about 12

to 12.5 percent protein level requirement,

and Russia's been meeting that for the last couple years.

But this week, we got a report from Moscow

from their Agriculture Department saying that they were

raising the production or the production estimate for wheat

from about 2.4 billion to about 2.5 billion.

So kind of like we saw last year, except last year

they raised it from 2.4 to 3.1.

They raised it again this year, but not as much.

But it does imply that they're going to put more wheat

on the market than the market was expecting,

say, a week ago.

>>> What does it mean for prices in Oklahoma?

Does the markets account for this?

>>> You bet they account for it.

However, I think that to a certain degree,

the United States and probably the market as a whole

was prepared for this type of announcement.

You look at USDA's estimate, they had it at 2.6 billion,

still above what the Russian estimate is.

You didn't see any big decline in the market.

Now, you didn't see any increase, you know.

It's been inching up just a little bit, and so I think

any impetus for higher prices I think it pretty much

killed that, but it didn't take the market down.

>>> Most commodities, most countries have markets

pre-set for their wheat.

Where's that Russian wheat going to go?

>>> Well, most Russian wheat goes to North Africa,

your African countries, your Western Asian countries.

There was a rumor a couple weeks ago that they were

selling wheat into Brazil.

So they're trying to move into that South American market

to a certain degree, but I think they're going to

have to have more wheat to do that.

>>> Let's kind of switch gears a little bit to some

stuff that's been going on in Oklahoma.

It's been wet.

I mean, we've needed the rain, Southwest Oklahoma's

needed the rain.

They got the rain, but just kind of at the wrong time.

The cotton fields are soggy at best, parts across the area.

What does that ...

I mean, obviously it's going to impact the price of cotton.

Let's talk about that.

>>> Well, you've got the cotton producer.

I think the biggest deal on cotton is the yield,

the quality and the yield.

I don't know that it'll have that much impact on price

because of the area, you know?

It's not a major cotton-producing area.

So I think it's going to hurt our producers with

the quality of the cotton,

and it's going to reduce the yield.

You look at other impacts of the rain, on wheat.

For the most part, rain makes grain,

I think for the most part it's going to get us pasture up.

However, producers that just got that wheat in the ground

got heavy rain over it.

They're going to have to re-plant.

I think most producers anticipated that and adjusted

their planning timing for that.

Of course, if you don't have the corn in,

or you don't have the beans in, in many areas that's

impacting those harvesters and that quality too.

>>> Okay, thank you much.

Kim Anderson, grain marketing specialist here at

Oklahoma State University.

(upbeat country guitar music)

 

Mesonet Weather

>>> Hello, Wes Lee with your weekly Mesonet weather report.

Wow, what a week we have had for

intensive weather conditions.

We had a major hurricane, Michael, in the gulf,

a tropical storm, Sergio, in the South Pacific,

and more than a dozen tornadoes

and widespread flooding in Oklahoma.

There was something for everyone who has

an interest in severe storms.

This week's cold front also brought some of the coldest air

of the season, just missing out on freezing conditions

in the Panhandle by a degree or two.

To date, we have not recorded a freezing temperature

in Oklahoma yet this fall, however that is expected

to change by early next week.

The widest impact of weather in Oklahoma this week

was heavy rain.

The seven day rainfall totals on October the tenth

had some impressive numbers in Western, Northwestern

and South Central Oklahoma.

Every Mesonet station recorded rain this week.

However, much of the highest rainfall amounts

were centered around the major crop growing regions.

The last few months have definitely been wet.

If we look at this map, we can see just how much rainfall

above normal we have received during the past 60 days.

Much of the state is colored blue,

which indicates 175% of normal or more.

The highest amount seen is a whopping 367%

of normal at Fitztown in southern Pontotoc County.

This recent heavy rain has also brought the statewide

year-to-date total to well above normal.

The blue line on this chart shows just how high

above the 15 year average, the thick black line,

has been since the 1st of August.

Additional rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio

are expected to add to this next week.

The drought monitor for Oklahoma

is in as good of shape as its been all year.

Soil moisture is now sufficient to remove the drought

rating almost completely from the tip of the panhandle

and far southwestern counties.

The only remaining drought on the monitor this week

is in northeastern Oklahoma centered between Osage

and Rogers Counties.

If we look at the forecast, we see high probabilities

of below normal temperatures for the week

of October 15th through the 19th.

This could be welcome news to northwestern Oklahoma

wheat producers looking for a freeze to help with damaging

fall army worm populations.

After that, the 30 day forecast map shows temperatures

are expected to move back above what is considered normal

for this time of year.

As for rainfall, we see the light green color

that indicates slightly above normal chances

for precipitation over the next 30 days.

This warmer and wet trend could continue on

into the early winter as El Nino conditions show signs

of strengthening as we get into November.

That's all for this week.

Please join us next week for more information on Oklahoma

weather in your Mesonet weather report.

(electric guitar)

 

Upcoming fire workshops

>>> Well all the rain we've gotten in the state

has been pretty positive when it comes to crops,

but there are some negative aspects to it.

So JD let's walk us through kind of how this growth

is probably caused some problems when it comes to fire.

>>> Okay, for purposes of wild land fire

we have generally two seasons,

what we call the growing season

and then the dormant season.

Right now, we're in the growing season.

We usually define that from May through October.

And the first half of our growing season

was actually not much rainfall.

But when you look at starting in July, August, September

we've had more than normal rainfall over much of the state.

And so this has encouraged greater than normal fuel growth.

And when we talk about fuel, we're talking about grasses

and other types of vegetation that can burn.

And with all this grassy fuel growth and forbes

and small brush that will be fuel for dormant season

when we get into the dormant season.

>>> So walk us through like when the dormant season begins.

>>> Okay, the dormant season typically occurs when grasses,

like this start senessing, as some of them already are now,

and we have our first hard freeze.

All the grasses basically die and go dormant.

The deciduous trees drop their leaves.

They can be burned, and so forth.

But, just to give an outlook for the upcoming dormancies,

we now have these excessive fuel loads of grasses, forbes,

and small brush over a lot of the state

that's received excess rainfall.

When these go, they convert to what we call one hour

dead fuels and some of the little thicker fuels can convert

to 10 hour fuels like some of that deadwood down there.

Those are 10 hour fuels.

And so these typically are involved in the start

and maintenance of fires.

So in areas that have had excessive fuel loads

going into the dormant season,

we can expect probably greater than normal fire activity

given the ignition sources.

So you add these excessive fuel loads on top

of the below normal precipitation

that might be expected this upcoming dormant season,

you can have some possible problems

for wildfire activity in Oklahoma.

>>> So switching gears a little bit, you have some workshops

that are going, currently going on

and then there's still a few more coming up

in regards to OK Fire.

So talk to us a little bit about those.

>>> OK Fire as most of your, or some of your viewers may know,

is our weather-based decision-making system

for wild land fire, which includes wildfire applications

and prescribed fire applications.

It's a program of the Oklahoma Mesonet.

We couple the Mesonet to take us up to the current time

with respect to fire conditions and then we use a 84 hour,

basically three and a half day forecast

to take us into the future.

So we're gonna be holding these workshops around the state.

One in McAllister, Duncan, and Stillwater.

These are open to the public.

They're free.

We basically have six hours of training

where I go over various aspects of fire weather,

fire danger, smoke, anything related to wild land fire,

and then we intersperse these with lab exercises

where they can go to their laptops and navigate the website

to become more familiar with how the products work.

>>> [Interviewer] Alright thanks, J. D.

If you would like a link to some up and coming

OK fire workshops, go to our website sunup.okstate.edu.

(country music)

 

The new USMCA Trade Agreement

>>> There is a new trade deal to replace NAFTA,

and here to talk about it

is our extension and policy specialist and economist,

Larry Sanders, and Larry,

why don't we just kind of start off for folks

with a broad overview of what's developed.

>>> Sure, the president and the countries

of Canada and Mexico brought it right down to the deadline

of September 30, but we now have a new acronym called

The U. S. Mexico Canada Agreement,

and it does replace NAFTA.

And it has a wide variety

of categories in it

from auto to drugs to intellectual property rights.

The focus we'll have on it today is to talk about

what's in it for agriculture.

>>> [Interviewer] And you've spent some time kind of boiling

that down specifically for agriculture.

Can you elaborate on that?

>>> Sure, we might just talk first of all,

about the U. S. Mexico side of it

because there they basically decided early on

to take agriculture off the table.

So, what farmers and ranchers saw with the NAFTA

before this agreement, really hasn't changed.

It's basically still there.

With the U. S. and Canada, there have been some changes.

President Trump really wanted

to get dairy farmers

in the United States to be able to have more market access

into Canada, and Canadians finally gave on that area.

It's in class seven milk, probably doesn't matter much

to Oklahoma dairy farmers, but we're talking about things

like skim milk, powdered milk, milk concentrates,

that sort of thing.

There are some agreements

with cereals,

grains like wheat,

that may affect Oklahoma a bit there.

The rest of it, it really hasn't changed a lot.

The most important thing we have here

is were back in a zone of certainty.

When President Trump backed out of NAFTA,

when he backed out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership,

we saw a great deal of uncertainty created among

farmers and ranchers particularly with trade

between Mexico and Canada.

They're two of our three biggest partners,

China being the third one.

And now farmers and ranchers can rest more comfortably

because we have certainty there.

So we may see changes yet to come in future years,

but in six years they will get together and they'll say

do we as three countries like the way this is?

If we like it, it's good for sixteen years.

And after sixteen years, if they like it,

it's good for another sixteen years.

So this degree of certainty could be with us

for a very long time.

The one thing that President Trump didn't get out of Canada

was that he wanted the dispute resolution

to reside

within the United States' court system.

Canada was unwilling to give on that.

So when Canada gave up the market access

for the United States to come into the dairy markets,

the United States gave up that access

for the dispute resolution.

So it's very much like the NAFTA was before.

So we're in a degree of certainty there.

What we still have to resolve now are the trade wars

that we have created with steel and aluminum,

and the tit for tat that China has brought on board.

>>> Just one piece of the picture then

is like you said a little more certain.

>>> That's right.

>>> And it is all about the negotiation,

the give and the take.

>>> It's on going.

>>> OK, Larry Sanders, thanks a lot.

We'll see you again soon.

(country music)

 

Cow-Calf Corner

>>> October is often the time, of course,

when we wean the spring-born calves,

and it's again the time that we take

a close look at the cows.

As they go through the shoot at weaning time

to see which ones that we're gonna keep or cull.

It's very, very important, I think,

for cow-calf producers that are

going to cull some cows this fall

to understand the pricing of cull cows.

Cows are generally graded into four different grades

based on their body condition.

The fattest cows are the ones they call Breakers.

And if you're acquainted with our

body condition scoring system, one through nine,

Breakers are generally going to be

cows that are at least sevens,

probably eights, or maybe even nines.

Very, very fleshy, fat cows.

The next group is called the Boning Utility cows.

And that's the cows that probably are more typical

for what a lot of commercial cows may look like

coming off of good summer grass.

They'll be in that body condition score of a five or a six.

Then we get into the thinner cows.

They're called the Leans.

And basically, Leans are going to be those cows that

are less than a body condition score five.

They'll be generally threes and fours.

The last group are also thin cows,

but they're very, very small cows,

and their weight usually will be

less than about 1,000 pounds live weight

and they're thin as well,

and they're called Light.

And so you've got those four grades.

Breakers, Boning Utility, Leans and Lights.

When you look at the market news reports,

you're gonna find that there will be some price spread

between the fleshier, fatter cows.

The Breakers are usually the highest price per pound.

Those Leans and Lights are going to

be the lowest price per pound,

which is an interesting situation

for the beef cattle industry,

'cause usually it's almost the opposite

where heavier cattle generally bring the lower price.

Instead of this way,

it's the heavier cow bringing the higher price per pound.

And I think that's important for us to understand,

that if we're going to cull some cows

and they're real thin this fall,

we may want to try to do something

in a short period of time, 45 to 60 days,

put 'em on a real high quality pasture,

such as wheat pasture later in the winter,

or feed 'em a really good ration for a short period of time

to try to improve their body condition

and get 'em into one of those better grades.

They'll weigh more,

and they'll bring a higher price per pound.

I really think that we want to understand

this grading principle

and how it affects pricing of culled cows

and it really brings back to me

the importance of proper cow culling.

Culling those cows before they get real thin,

if at all possible.

They'll weigh more, they'll bring more per pound,

and therefore, most dollars back into our operation.

Next week on the Cow-Calf Corner,

we'll visit a little more about cull cows

and one of the other key aspects that affects their pricing,

and that's dressing percent.

We'll see you then on Sunup's Cow-Calf Corner.

 

Livestock Marketing

>>> Like it or not,

Oklahoma has seen a lot of rain here lately

and Derrell, what has that meant for

wheat pasture across the state?

>>> Well, in general it's a good thing.

Moisture is always good in Oklahoma.

Arguably we've had a little too much at times

and a little too concentrated,

but as long as the wheat got planted around all the rain,

it's coming up fast, it's growing fast.

We're gonna have some wheat pasture before very long.

There's been a lot of interest in stocker cattle this fall.

We've seen counter-seasonable increases

in these calf prices in September.

Now I think we've probably peaked that out here.

Of course, rainy, cold, wet weather is not a good time

to receive lightweight stocker calves,

and that took a little bit off the market this last week,

and we're probably gonna see some

seasonal flattening in this market.

I don't know that it's gonna drop a lot

as we go through October.

>>> Now, here this last week,

there was some trade data that came out.

What are you seeing in that?

>>> Well, we continue.

We've been on a heck of a run with beef exports.

We've had another month of strong year-over-year increases.

We're up over 14% year-to-date,

and we're up across the board to our major markets

with the exception of Canada is down a little bit.

But in general we're doing very well in these export markets

and they're really helping us a lot,

given that we're still increasing beef production.

>>> With all of that news in the trade data,

how's that impacting the markets?

>>> Aside from the actual trade data,

we've had a lot of trade news recently.

We signed a new Korean free trade agreement.

That's very good.

Again, really to take some uncertainty out of the market.

It continues what we've got.

South Korea has been our fastest-growing

export market in recent years.

They're the number two market.

And so that's very important.

Of course, we have the new version of NAFTA now, USMCA.

It's pronounced NAFTA, so, you know,

we basically rebuilt NAFTA,

and that's the biggest contribution of that.

Is to, again, remove the uncertainty of not knowing.

We got back basically what we had before

and a little bit more in some sectors.

So from a beef market standpoint, again,

that's reassuring to the market.

We're talking about working on a deal with Japan.

That's further down the road,

and possibly the European Union as well.

And then, of course, in a broader sense,

China is still there in the background.

That's gonna be an ongoing issue for some time to come.

>>> As we move throughout the season, throughout the year,

how important will trade play into 2019?

>>> It's gonna continue to be extremely important.

We're gonna continue to see

year-over-year increases in beef production.

Demand in general has been good,

and a big component of offsetting some of that

increased production is the exports

and the movement of that meat offshore.

Not only for beef,

but also for the other meats as well.

>>> Okay, thank you much, Derrell Peel.

Livestock marketing specialist here

at Oklahoma State, University.

And now here's some information about

the OSU Beef Industry Conference coming up this week.

Some of the national leaders in the beef industry

will be there talking about improving conception rates

through vaccine product choices and timing.

Also, OSU's new Temple Grandin-endowed chair holder,

Janine Johnson, will talk about her experiences

on the effects of stress and environment on animal health.

For more information about OSU's beef industry conference,

visit our website, sunup.okstate.edu

 

>>> That'll do it for us this week.

Remember you can find us anytime on our website,

and also follow us on YouTube and social media.

I'm Lyndall Stout.

Have a great week, everyone.

And remember, Oklahoma agriculture starts at Sunup.

 

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