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E-mail: sunup@okstate.edu

 

 

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Transcript for July 29, 2017

Transcript to come.

This show includes the following segments:

  • Sugar cane aphid update
  • Mesonet Weather
  • Cotton update
  • Livestock Marketing
  • Cow-Calf Corner
  • Market Monitor
  • FAPC 20-Year

(inspiring music)    

(pleasant guitar music)   

 

Sugar cane aphid update

>>> Hello everyone, and welcome to SUNUP.

  I'm Lyndall Stout.

  We begin today with research on a sorghum pest that's relatively new to Oklahoma,

 the Sugar Cane Aphid.

  SUNUP's Dave Deacon has more.

>>> The Sugar Cane Aphid problem in Oklahoma has been probably the key pest that we've had to deal with since 2014.

>>> People were scared to death because they didn't know what hit them.

>>> Neighbors said, "Hey, we've got Sugar Cane Aphid",

and we said, "What is that? 

"It sounds like it should only be in sugar cane." 

>>> It kind of came on us like gangbusters.

  We weren't prepared for it, we'd never seen anything quite like it.

>>> A rude awakening when it came in.

  Something that just we were not prepared for

and was detrimental to our crop.

>>> We were scrambling and we got together with a team here at Oklahoma State,

and worked with the Sorghum Checkoff Program,

and with the USDA NIFA Program to put together kind of a longer-term strategy to try and come up with  answers through research.

>>> When we started the test over here, there was not much  information about Sugar Cane Aphids.

>>> [Dave] When you're trying to catch a bandit, you want to track them back to the original crime scene.

  Oklahoma State University researchers had the perfect place to find Sugar Cane Aphid answers:

The Wes Watkins  Agricultural Research and Extension Center near Lane.

>>> The first time that Sugar Cane Aphids was discovered, 

was in Bryan County, in the same area,

so we assumed that if we plant everything down here,

this would be  the port of entry, and we were right.

  For the past four years they have had all of our trials down here,

and you bet your bottom dollar  that we get insects.

>>> So what I do is I sample a whole lot, and then we put it into a statistical model.

>>> [Dave] Jess has put a lot of Oklahoma miles on her car checking sorghum fields in every corner of the state, 

including the Bolay sorghum in Noble County.

  So far, the research that she has helped collect has yielded information that is helping producers stay in front of this aphid and the damage that it causes.

>>> We're going to have to do a whole lot of sampling before we can,

with confidence, estimate their population  density within a field.

>>> I'm feeling a little more confident now that we've got answers,

or at least we can provide suggestions 

and answers to producers so that they can more effectively manage the Sugar Cane Aphid.

>>> With the Sugar Cane Aphid, a lot of people and producers in our area have eliminated it from their rotation  because of that pest, nuisance,

and so I think maybe we'll see some people go back to it with some of the  research that Oklahoma State's done.

>>> We're joined now by Extension Entomologist Tom Royer, 

and Tom it looks like the research team accomplished quite a bit in a short amount of time.

>>> We did, there was a lot of pressure on us,

obviously  with the aphid coming in so heavy and fast.

The producers needed answers right away,

so we started  just trying to prioritize what we thought were the most  important things,

and we tried to identify what insecticides worked the best,

what varieties of sorghum could tolerate the aphid,

and then as other questions came up,

we were  able to try and answer some of those questions.

  But we just had to get some of those baseline things done first.

>>> Where are we this year? 

What's the landscape, if you will? 

>>> We've had about three years of looking at insecticide  products

and we're hoping that maybe some of the companies will, that we've found maybe some of their products  work pretty well,

that they'll pursue registration,

but we  have at least identified a couple products  that work pretty well.

  We definitely worked a lot on identifying varieties 

and sorghum lines that are tolerant to the aphid,   

so we're a lot more comfortable with that,

and I think  the producers in the state have switched over to a lot  of those that they know are going to be less susceptible  to the aphid.

  So now we're getting into some other things.

  Down south it was really important for them to look at insecticide seed treatments.

>>> We didn't know if they would work up here and so,

after a couple years, it's like, 

"Well let's take a look and see if they benefit  "our producers up here," and so we've done that.

  Then we started getting questions from some of the producers of forage sorghum, that stuff that grows this tall.

  And they don't have as much support for getting research,

 so we are at least trying to look at  how those forage varieties tolerate the aphid,

and how to control it.

  One of the things that,

for us, is important is we know that getting good thorough coverage to the crop  is important for controlling the aphids, 

and it's a much more of a challenge with forage sorghum as it is with short grain sorghum like this, 

so we're gonna start looking at that.

We actually have a research project  looking at that this year.

>>> So this will, the questions will just evolve.

>>> They evolve, yes.

>>> The research will follow suit? 

>>> Yes, yes.

  We're all in the business of answering questions that producers generate,

and trying to come up with answers for them and solutions.

  This January we're gonna be meeting in another,

  in St. Louis from all the southeast entomologists, 

and we'll get together and exchange ideas 

and exchange what we learned this year.

>>> Well as you come up with solutions,

of course  we're happy to pass it along to the producers of Oklahoma.

  Tom, thanks for your time today.

  (bouncy music)   

 

Mesonet Weather

>>> Good morning, everyone.

  One more week with me at the helm, Al's still gone.

  I'm sure everybody's anxious for Al to come back, 

but until then you're still my captive audience.

  And of course we're gonna start out,

 as usual, with the drought monitor report.

  So let's take a look at the map and see what we have.

  Well what we have is pretty simple,

we have a drought  that continues to grow during the summer months with the heat

and the diminished precipitation.

  We do see that the drought's strengthening  across far west-central Oklahoma, 

and also central up into north-west Oklahoma, 

so those are two areas, of course, to look at.

  And those areas in yellow, the abnormally dry conditions, 

those are areas where drought is trying to develop, 

so we need some rain, of course, as always.

  And those are the areas we're gonna keep watching.

And again, we show this about every week, 

but the departure from normal for the last 60 days, 

we can see those areas in the darker orange and red, 

where the deficits are continuing to grow from four to  nearly seven inches across parts of central Oklahoma.

  Around four inches out in far west-central 

and also up into north-central Oklahoma.

  Last week we showed you the mesonet soil moisture.

  Now these maps show the extent of topsoil   

and subsoil short or very short of moisture according to the USDA.

  And as you can see,

61% of the topsoils in Oklahoma considered short or very short of moisture.

  That's easily reflected also in the mesonet data.

  Now the subsoil,

 that's up to 67%  short or very short of moisture, 

so that's continued to increase  as we've gone to the summer.

  Again, that's from the USDA,

generally from your local FSA, NRCS,

and other folks such as that in your counties.

  So if we take a look at the precipitation map, 

we see increased odds of above normal precipitation amounts for that three-month period across central,  south-central, and south-east Oklahoma.

  A little bit lesser up into the north-western  and north-central and eastern parts of the state.

  But better chances of above normal precipitation amounts down there across the southern portions of the state.

  Now of course those white areas, that's where above normal, 

below normal, and near normal probabilities  are all just about equal.

  So basically a punt by the climate prediction center.

  Now that August through October temperature outlook is pretty obviously on the warm side, 

not quite so increased with the odds in Oklahoma as the surrounding parts of the United States, 

but they are still increased odds of above normal  temperatures for that August through October period.

  So kind of a mixed bag in predictions there on the precipitation and temperature outlooks.

  We need rainfall in those areas that most need it,  central over through west-central Oklahoma, 

up into the pan handle and to the points east,  into north-central Oklahoma.

  Of course everybody needs rain,

but those are the areas  that are most in danger of seeing that drought  intensify or develop.

That's it for this time.

  We'll see you next time on the Mesonet Weather Report.

  (upbeat strings music)   

 

Cotton update

We're already a couple of months into the cotton season, and Randy, 

where are we with Oklahoma cotton? 

>>> Well, Dave, we actually have probably the largest planted acres in the States since 1982, 

if we indeed believe the USDA  National Ag Statistics Service numbers.

  They have us at 470,000 acres planted.

    That's way up from, what was it? 

Let me cheat here, 215,000 planted in 2015, 

305,000 planted last year,

and 470,000 this year, 

so, if we indeed believe those numbers, 

we're sitting at about twice our  what we would consider a long-term average.

>>> And that's pretty amazing coming off  of a couple of years ago whenever there was  barely any cotton planted in the States.

>>> Well, our planted acres actually stayed up.

  It was our harvested acres that got clobbered,

so  I would say that we're probably somewhere in the neighborhoodof about twice what we would normally see  in terms of planted acres.

>>> And the good thing is we actually have a little bit of moisture  for the plants this year.

>>> We are in fairly good shape in a lot of places.

  Of course, we probably have somewhere  in the neighborhood of about 100,000 acres  of irrigated cotton,

out of that 470  if we believe that number,

and I keep saying that, right?

(laughing) 

So, that means we have a lot more dry land acres.

  Of course, as we get into late July and move on into August, of course,

that precipitation for the dry land becomes extremely critical.

  And unfortunately, way too many times in my life, 

I've watched dry land cotton go through a lot of stress 

and be very disappointing at the end of the year, 

but we're gonna be optimistic that this year, 

we're gonna be able to make some things happen.

>>> And actually, there's water in the lake this year.

>>> Yes, indeed, we really didn't have an opportunity to put it over the spillway  like we've done for the past couple of years, 

but we are sitting right now, I believe, 

with the upper 70s in terms of percent  in the Lake Lugert, so that's outstanding.

  We should have enough water in the lake  to pretty much make a very, v

ery good crop this year, 

assuming we don't get into any other  significant weather factors.

>>> Where are we with the actual growth  of the plant right now? 

>>> We really have a lot of variability out there.

  It depends on planning date.

  We had some cotton in the state that was planted probably early May.

  So this field right here was planted May the 10th.

  We actually had a lot of dry land that was planted probably as late as June 20th  depending upon which county.

  So, we have the crops probably planted somewhere in the neighborhood of  scattered out over about 30, 40 days, for sure.

  Dry land, most of the time,

a lot of growers  especially in Tillman county,

they like to see  that planting date pushed back a little bit later.

  As we go farther north, maybe up in the Washita County, 

they don't like to do that.

>>> Now we're on actually the west side of Altus right now,

 but you also have a field  you wanna show us on the east side.

>>> Absolutely, yes.

>>> Let's go.

>>> Let's go see that.

>>> So, Randy, here we are on the east side of Altus.

  What do we see in this field? 

>>> This particular field right here  is another variety trial, 

large plot variety trial  that we have with Abernathy Farms, 

Clint Abernathy and his sons.

>>> And speaking of new acres, a lot of the new acres  are gonna be on dry land.

  This is also irrigated but  what are we seeing in the dry land cotton? 

>>> We really have a very significant mixed bag.

  As we look at where the rainfall came during the months of, say, April, May and June, 

maybe the last 60 or 70 days, something like that, 

we really had some areas out in the northwest area   

Beckham County and Greer County,  Washita County up in there, 

they actually had not as much rainfall up there.

  And so a lot of that cotton that was planted really kinda struggled to make a stand.

>>> So there's always concern for boll weevils in the industry.

  What do you think we'll be fighting here? 

>>> Dave, we have actually been what we would consider eradicated  in the state of Oklahoma now for several years.

  We have actually not trapped a boll weevil one in the state for several years.

  So, and I don't know for those folks that don't understand what's going on with boll weevils.

  You know, that is a very insidious pest,

 it's an invasive species from Mexico.

  Thank goodness, in the 1990s,

we actually had  a lot of technological breakthroughs.

  A trapping system was designed.

>>> And actually, one of the tools that you have to help spread the word about cotton news is the newsletter you've just produced.

>>> [Randy] That newsletter is also available  on our websites, including the cotton.okstate.edu website.

>>> Well, that's really interesting and we'll actually put a link to all that information  on our website, sunup.okstate.edu.

    (optimistic music)   

 

Livestock Marketing

>>> Derrell Peel, livestock marketing specialist joins us now and Derrell,

the USDA released some cattle reports  and one of those was the elusive midyear cattle report.

  Talk a little bit about that.

>>> Well, the midyear cattle inventory report,

we got it  again this year, we didn't get it last year.

  We've gotten it three out of the last five years,

 so that makes it a little harder to interpret when you don't get a consistent data series there, 

but it seems to confirm what we've been expecting all along, that we're continuing to add to the cattle herd, 

broadly speaking, and specifically to the beef cow herd.

  If you look at that beef cow inventory estimate in this  report,

 and compare the July estimate to the previous  January estimate,

compared to what it has done historically, 

the ratio of those two time periods would suggest that  we are still adding cows to the cow herd here in 2017.

>>> What's some of the highlights that were in that report? 

>>> Beyond that, there's also a beef replacement heifer  estimate,

 it's a little harder to interpret without  a year-over-year comparison,

but it would seem to suggest  maybe that we're not saving as many heifers.

  There's some other data that kind of confirms that.

  Probably the most important and most readily usable number  out of this report is the calf crop estimate for 2017.

  We do know what the 2016 calf crop was,

so year-over-year, 

the calf crop was up 3.5%, which exactly matches the  amount that the beef cow herd increased in 2016,

 so it all kind of goes together, makes some sense.

  It means we've got more calves here in 2017.

  Feeder supplies are going to continue to be large  through 2017

and on into 2018, for sure.

>>> Moving to the monthly cattle on feed report,

there was  some news there.

  Talk a little bit about that.

>>> Well, there was a fairly big surprise in this month's  cattle on feed report.

  The placement number for June came in at 116% of last year,

 trade was only expecting about 106%,

and so that was a  fair shock to the market,

and the market has reacted  pretty negatively to that following the report.

  If you look at kind of what was going on there, 

the weight breakdown would confirm that most of that  increase in placements was in lightweight cattle, 

and I think the explanation's pretty simple: feed lots  have made a lot of money in the last three months or so, 

they're very good about spending those profits on feeder  cattle,

and so they placed all the big cattle we were  expecting them place,

and then they reached down into these  lighter weight feeders,

and placed a bunch of them as well.

  So it probably doesn't have terribly big implications  for the rest of the year,

 but it scares the trade when you  see those kind of big numbers come in suddenly.

>>> So, let's take a step back and just kind of look at the big picture.

  What's the impact these reports will have on the markets for the next year? 

>>> You know, I don't think these reports fundamentally  change my view of the market,

and we know that in general, 

we're in a large and growing supply scenario.

  We've kind of confirmed that with the inventory report  with a bigger calf crop,

so feeder supplies are going to  be big through 2017 and on into 2018.

  That means that beef production's going to continue  to grow on into 2019.

  We've been expecting that and this really is just a  confirmation of that,

 if anything.

  And even more short-term, feeder and fed cattle markets  have been very strong so far this year,

and I don't think  we've really changed anything there.

  It hinges a lot for the rest of the year and on into next  year what demand does.

  Demand has been very strong and has made these markets, 

allowed them to be bigger even with some supply pressure, 

and as long as that doesn't change then we're in good shape.

>>> Alright, thanks a lot, Derrell.

  We'll see you next time.

  (cheerful music)

 

Cow-Calf Corner   

>>> These so-called dog days of summer

are a reminder to beef cattle producers here in the southern plains 

about why we choose breeding seasons,

and therefore  calving seasons when they occur.

  Data from many, many different experiment stations  across the United States

has shown us that heat stress can have a pretty detrimental effect on the reproductive  capability of beef cattle.

  Here at Oklahoma State University, a number of years ago, 

clear back in 1986, a very interesting experiment  was conducted

with some beef cows that were naturally bred, 

bred to bulls in a very comfortable environment, 

something in the 70 degree range.

  Eight days after they were bred,

then these cows were  put into three different environments.

  One a very comfortable environment,

71 degrees around  the clock, low humidity.

  Another one they called moderate heat stress,

and in that  situation, those cows were in an environment that was  above 90 degrees around the clock,

but low humidity.

  And then the third group,

what they called high heat stress, 

or severe heat stress, those cows were subjected  to above 90 degrees 24 hours a day,

plus high humidity.

    After eight days of this, 

then the scientist went and harvested the cows, 

looked at those that were still pregnant  and the size of the conceptus.

    By conceptus I mean basically the weight  of the little embryo, the fluids

and the membranes  that keep that embryo growing.

    What they found was quite a difference  in the number of cows that were still pregnant.

  In the case of those that were in that  thermo neutral environment,

a 71 degrees,  83% of those cows were still bred.

  In the case of the cows that had the moderate heat stress,

 it was down to 64%

and it was even worse  as you might expect in those with severe heat stress 

at only 50% of them still had an embryo.

  Even as important or more important 

when they looked at the weight of that conceptus, 

there was a substantial difference.

  They were much, much lighter in the case  of those cows that were under heat stress.

  Indicating to me that even though at eight days  of heat stress,

they may have still been alive, 

there's a good chance that some of those, 

if not many of them wouldn't have survived.

  We hope that gives you a little better understanding 

of the environment's impact on reproduction of beef cows 

and we certainly look forward to visiting with you  next time on Sunup's Cow-calf Corner.

  (easy music)   

 

Market Monitor

>>> Kim Anderson, our crop marketing specialist, is here now

and Kim prices have dropped about 80 cents  in the last few weeks.

  Give us an idea of what's going on.

>>> WE got that rally, we got the rally on  lower hard red winter wheat production in the United States.

  The spring wheat, the US spring wheat crop significantly lower than we expected several months ago.

  You look around the world at the hard wheat producing  countries,

Australia down 30%.

  Actually every country but Argentina  was expected to be lower.

  Now the Russian crop,

they're the highest producer  of the hard wheat,

it looks like their  production for 17

will be about the same as it was for 16 

 and that was a record crop.

  I think that high Russian crop is causing prices to go down.

  Plus you know prices when you get bad news,  they will swing like a pendulum.

  I think they swung too high.

  They adjusted for that and then they adjusted  for the increase in Russian production.

  Maybe Ukraine production.

  I think that's had a psychological impact on our market.

  They've taken it back down

and hopefully like the pendulum 

that has swung too far down, it'll come back up now.

>>> What do you think will happen in the next few months then looking ahead? 

>>> Our marking year trend is normally set in late August, September and October.

  So when we start getting more information on this foreign crop.

  Remember the total foreign crop hard wheat production 

for the world was expected to be about 13% lower.

  All wheat in foreign production is expected  to be about the same as last year.

  We've gotta watch that coming in for the next few months.

  They're gonna watch Australia and Argentina.

  I think it's gonna remain to be volatile.

  Hopefully we'll gain from it some of this price back.

  I don't think we'll go any lower so I think we'll have slightly higher prices.

>>> Okay, Kim thanks a lot.

  (guitar music)  

 

FAPC 20-Year

 Finally today we're celebrating the  Robert M. Kerr Food and Agricultural Product Center.

  As the team there marks its first 20 years of innovation 

and serving Oklahoma

>>> I think the Food and Ag Products Center was launched with a tremendous vision 

of helping value added food and agricultural  companies across the state.

But no one really had an idea  how it actually would flesh out.

>>> Got a lot of the things that he had thought about over years

were based on how to bring more  income back to the farm and farmer.

  He made a coalition, a rural coalition there in the legislature.

  That coalition bought into his idea

about value added in the state of Oklahoma.

  Dad thought what could we do possibly  to bring some of that income back in the state of Oklahoma? 

That was to add the value to that product.

>>> I just felt that that was important

 for us to have a center like that available to the farmer.

  Senator Kerr and   

myself and several other board members 

when to the senate and  got approval   

to build that product center.

>>> As it's gone through these last 20 years, 

it's developed very successful programs 

in facility, in plant support, technical systems,

    products development, training and eduction in facilities  as well as here.

>>> The businesses that we've helped.

  Again they add new employees, it's helps the economy.

  We've seen pretty consistent growth every single year.

    I think there's been several thousands, 

probably 18 thousand new jobs created over that period of time.

>>> Most noteworthy is the food industry entrepreneurial business.

  That program,

I don't think anybody would  have ever guessed that that program itself  would have echoed across America.

  There's been numerous people from numerous states  have come here

and wondered how we did that  and wanted to know what it took to be 

able to launch that program.

  And take that information back to their own state  so they can do the same.

>>> I think it's a little bit of hidden secret here in the state of Oklahoma that people just don't know.

>>> If we didn't have the center there, 

the state of Oklahoma would not be able to attract in to our state

different industries  that we've been able to help  and help to grow.

>>> We've had a tremendous impact through the years 

and have developed the food industry in the state 

to compete with anybody, any other state  in America.

>>> To see more of the Food and Ag Product Center's  impact on Oklahoma,

as well as what the future holds,  go to our website, sunup.okstate.edu.

  A final programming note, Sunup will be preempted

 for the next couple of weeks for OETA's August Fest.

  We look forward to seeing you again on August 19th.

  (upbeat music)                        

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