Transcript for January 14, 2017
Transcript to come.
This show includes the following segments:
- Wheat Update
- Mesonet Weather
- Brush Pile Burning in Winter?
- Market Monitor
- Cow-Calf Corner
- Livestock Marketing
>>> Hello, everyone, and welcome to SUNUP.
I'm Lyndall Stout.
Despite a few warm days this week, winter is really settling in across Oklahoma.
And to get an idea on how these temperature shifts are impacting our wheat crop, we're joined by our Extension Small Grains Specialist, David Marburger.
David, sometimes we see this 40 to 50 degree temperature shift in a matter of 24 hours.
How does that impact the wheat crop?
>>> Well, we kinda think about it in terms of where we're at in the growing season right now, and we're in January right now.
And so far, the wheat is already cold-hearted, it's already being dormant,
and having these big temperature swings this time of year is not going to have as big of an impact on the crop because it is dormant.
If we were to have this type of temperature swing before we get into winter,
when the plants have not had a chance to acclimate yet, that's where we can run into some issues.
But fortunately, where we're at right now, the plants are dormant and we're having these big temperature swings,
which does kinda give the cue that the plant does wanna try and grow again, but it's gotten cold,
but so far we should be fine with that, because we have to think about where does it really have to do some harm to really impact the plants?
And that's at the crown, which hopefully your crown, if you did a great job on your planting, that crown's gonna be below the soil surface and that is helping insulate that a little bit.
And fortunately too, with the temperature swings that we're gonna have, they're not gonna stay here very long.
So, by the time it would take the soil temperatures to really lower down to a level that could potentially cause harm,
our temperatures are gonna warm back up and we'll be back at a more ideal level.
>>> How about the moisture levels, are we okay?
Obviously we're pretty dry everywhere, but does that impact the crop this time of year?
>>> I was just gonna say, it kinda depends on where you're at in the state and the southwestern part of the state, actually there is soil moisture out there,
but we get into other areas, especially as you move north-central, out into the northwestern, out in the panhandle region, it's very dry.
There's no doubt about it.
It is very dry.
And this time of year, fortunately, our driest time of the year is right now,
but fortunately we're not doing a lot of growing right now and in terms of the crop this year, we got off to a pretty good start.
We were able to plant overall a lot of our wheat into soil moisture,
and get it up, and get it to start growing, but unfortunately the rain shut off.
And so for producers who were trying to target maybe a little bit more fall forage, in some of those areas,
they may not have had quite the fall forage they wanted, but as of right now, it is very dry and we need the rain.
Fortunately, it sounds like this coming weekend, we're going to have a significant amount of rain across much of the state.
That's definitely gonna help and if we can continue to catch some more rain from now up until we get to jointing,
that's definitely going to help our case for this crop.
>>> I know that wheat isn't too busy right now, but in terms of management for growers, what kind of things are you talking to them about?
>>> Well, this time of year normally is when we start thinking about topdressing and I know Doctor Arnell last week,
he talked a little bit about some of the considerations that are gonna go along with topdressing, so that's one of the biggest management things to consider right now.
As we transition into the next couple weeks here, into mid to late February,
we're gonna start thinking about first hollow stem,
so that's another thing and around that time too, is thinking about getting some of our herbicide applications out there,
some of the herbicides that we use, they have to be used before we get into jointing.
So, we're gonna have to make sure that those are done.
>>> Okay, so still work to be done.
>>> Okay, David, thanks a lot.
>>> Thank you.
>>> We'll see you again soon.
>>> What a week this has been.
Winter, spring, winter, and soon spring again.
We just keep jumping around.
After a cold weekend, Wednesday afternoon highs climbed into the 80's in southwest Oklahoma.
The coolest location was Lahoma at 67 degrees.
At 3 p.m. Wednesday afternoon the burning index for large portions in the state was above 50, and in isolated spots in the panhandle above 100.
That would mean flame heights at the head of a fire would be five or more feet high.
We saw soil temperatures climb across the state this week.
The Mesonet 4-inch bare soil temperature at Guthrie showed how last weekend's cold pushed soil temperatures down near 35 degrees from Friday through Monday morning.
Monday afternoon the 4-inch bare soil temperatures started climbing, reaching 53 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
Bare soils have no vegetation to insulate them, so they respond faster to air temperature changes.
Even at two inches, a soil covered with dead vegetation stayed warmer when it was cooler, and didn't get as warm when the heat returned.
And when we include Guthrie's 4-inch soil temperature under vegetation, the dark green line, it is warmest during the cooler days, and has less variation during warmer days.
Here's Gary with a check on draught conditions, and what is ahead.
>>> Thanks Al, and good morning everyone.
Now, as you're watching this, you're probably getting lots of ice, lots of rain, or maybe even lots of rain and ice.
So keep that in mind as I show you this new draught monitor map, because it might be changing next week, and changing a lot.
So let's get right to that map.
So the map before this week's rainfall, the impacts we see lots of that still severe to extreme draught across southeast Oklahoma traveling up through central and to northwestern Oklahoma,
all the way out to the western panhandle.
There was a little bit of intensification,
not too much on this map,
so basically the same map as last week,
with just a little bit of intensification,
but more importantly, no improvements, yet that is.
And to show why we had this map still showing intensification and persistence, if we look at those consecutive days with less than at least a quarter inch of rainfall from the Mesonet,
you go from 123 days up in Woodward, to up in the 60's and 70's across other parts of state,
even more than a month across southwest Oklahoma.
So that's the reason for the dryness, that's the reason for the draught, and of course we have dryness going all the way back to the beginning of last year.
Now we might be going back into another warm, dry pattern after we get past this rainfall, which will be OK.
If we take a look at these outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, this is for the January 18-24 period, we see greatly increased odds of above normal temperatures, and below normal precipitation.
For January, that doesn't mean it's gonna be 70, 80, 90 degrees, but normal is about 50 or so.
And the precipitation, it's very dry, so when we have increased odds of below normal precipitation that means very dry.
So I hope you got lots of rain, very little ice at your place,
and I hope we kicked a little of this draught out of the state,
and I hope to have a nicer map for you next week.
So we'll see you next week on the Mesonet Weather Report.
(harmonica and guitar)
>>> [Voiceover] A quick reminder that the 2017 Canola College is coming up on January 19th at the Chisolm Trail Expo Center in Enid.
For more information, visit our website.
(harmonica and guitars)
Brush Pile Burning in Winter?
>>> A lot of people may think that it's a great time to burn, say after a snow event, but Jon, really, that's not a great time.
>>> Yeah, a lot of times we get a lot of people have brush piles of stuff and they think that when we have a snow event, that's the perfect time to burn brush piles.
And it's not.
By far, it's the worst time to burn brush piles.
>>> So why would a moisture event like a snow be a bad time?
>>> A couple reasons.
Number one, most of the time, most of the snows that we get are very limited in moisture, they're dry, if you call it dry snow, they do not have a lot of moisture in them.
The next thing is most of our snow events that we get here in Oklahoma may last 24 hours.
48 tops, you know, before they're melted and gone.
And then what happens is, again: wintertime, dry, dormant vegetation, January- December, January, February are the driest months of the year here in Oklahoma.
All the vegetation is dry and dormant.
We're also getting all these dry, cold fronts that come through that don't have a lot of moisture with them.
We're having humidities down in the teens, sometimes single digits so things are really dry.
We get snow on the ground, people are thinking, "Let's go burn that brush pile, it'd be a good time to do it."
They go burn it, snow melts the next day, the wind typically picks up because we're fixing to have another frontal system come through
and a lot of times it's not associated with any moisture at all, and so we get strong winds,
either out of the south or out of the north, and everything that's been smoldering in that brush pile-'cause the brush pile can smolder for several days, even weeks,
depending on the amount of dirt, how big the pile was, things like that.
And the wind picks up, and nobody's there watching that brush pile, and an ember blows out, and there it goes, and it's off to the races.
>>> Now, this burn pile was actually-brush pile was actually burned, say, four days ago, whenever it did snow.
>>> It did snow.
And again, unfortunately, you know, good.
light fuel around it.
The person that burned it sat and watched it, so they were taking good care of it and doing that.
But again, as you can see with this brush pile here, there's a lot of dirt piled up was pushed up when the pile was made.
So, within that, you can start digging through there.
We were digging through this pile just a while ago and there's some really hot spots that are,
still, back underneath that dirt and all that's gonna take is some really strong winds can pick that up,
start blowing, ember pops out, gets in the dry grass and doing it, 'cause that's the biggest problem.
We may have snow on the ground when the pile burns, but then once that snow melts, that grassy fuels are dry and dormant.
There was a lot of brush piles burned after this last snow event here, just a few days ago.
You know, I walked out from the house over there one day and I'd seen five different smoke plumes scattered all around the horizon.
Well, the next two days after that, I know Logan County, Noble County had numerous fire calls
and I know several of them were from brush piles that were burned a few days before.
>>> Well, and actually, you're a rural, volunteer firefighter yourself and a researcher, so you had to go.
>>> That's right.
And so, again, that's typically what happens and it's usually two or three days after that pile gets burned, in doing that.
And so, I guess the next question is, when is the best time to burn brush piles?
And it's not December, January or February, when we have snow on the ground.
The best time to burn brush piles is in May and June, when things green up, we're a lot more moist.
So you've got green vegetation not saying stuff still won't burn,
but it will not burn as rapidly,
it will not burn as hot, and the conditions aren't near as favorable for wildfire type conditions.
Well, Thank you much, John, and for more information go to our website: SUNUP.OKSTATE.EDU
(folksy guitar music)
>>> Kim Anderson, our crop marketing specialist, is here now, and Kim, some new USDA reports are just in.
What did they tell you?
>>> Well, you look at the cities report or the planted acres, you look at total winter for the United States.
The trade headed at 34.1 million acres.
It came in at 32.4, that's positive, price-wise.
That's the lowest since 1909, when it was 29.2 million acres.
Some hard red winter wheat, it came in at 23.3 million acres.
The trade was expected at 25, and so, again, that's good, positive-wise.
If you look at Oklahoma: 4.5 million acres.
And that was a surprise to me, I figured it'd be less but not that much.
That's a 10% decline from last year.
You look at Kansas: 7.4 million acres, that's the lowest since 1911 for Kansas, 13% less than last year.
You look at the WASDE Report, not much there.
They increased wheat ending stocks 43 million bushels for the United States.
Less feeding, that's corn, and that's one thing we wanna watch.
And less wheat use for seeds.
You look at the world wheat ending stocks, they raised it 48 million, and of that 48 million, of course, 43 was United States.
The quarterly stocks report on wheat, 207 million billion bushels, the trade was expected at 200 uh, 2.06.
Uh you look at Oklahoma, and for right now, it was 138.3 million bushels.
Last year it was 119 million bushels.
You know, that's an increase of 39 million bushels.
Think about the 16 harvest and how much wheat we put on the ground.
And we've got 19 more, or uh, yeah 39 million more bushels right now than we did this time last year.
What are we gonna do with the 17 crop?
>>> And then, that's a lot of numbers, obviously.
What does that mean? How do you start processing all of this?
>>> Oh yeah, I think we got two negative and one positive and I think the positive's gonna trump the negative.
The uh, WASDE, the slightly higher ending stocks, I don't think that's much of a big deal, that's got, have a potential short run increase on price.
The quarterly stocks, estimated again short run impact.
I think the positive is the lower acres.
I think that got the markets attention.
You know, we got a little rally after that.
I think our acreage, our less planted acres, or seeded acres trumps the quarterly stocks and the ending stocks.
If you look at corn, corn was just neutral.
I don't think there's much impact there.
We've gotta watch it because, we need to feed more wheat.
We got a lot of wheat we gotta get in, into the feed so we gotta watch corn there.
>>> Now, what else then are you looking at to impact prices?
>>> I think the biggest thing, or the most important at least to Oklahoma producers is that rain this weekend.
I mean we gotta, we're getting into a drought situation.
I talked to some producers.
They said, if we don't get some rain in the next two or three weeks, we're just gon' be uh, this could end up probably going to summer crops.
I think the rain is real important.
Another one is exports, our hard red winter wheat exports.
They're 93% higher than last year.
I think that's positive for our prices.
And you gotta look at the new administration.
Whether you're Republican or Democrat, I read a book about a guy that built a huge ranching operation down in Texas.
He wrote his book in 1909, and he said I suffered my greatest loss from changes of administration.
When you have change in administration, you know people, we've seen a rally in the market.
People don't know how to react and you don't know what you're gonna get.
So, I think that's important there.
>>> And last but not least, that harvest price.
>>> I think uh, I'm basically optimistic for price especially with these less acres.
The market needs the test weight and needs protein.
If we could have a test weight protein crop, they're gonna need to buy it.
One, they gotta keep it out of the loan.
They're gonna need to keep it out of storage.
And so I'm looking for four and a quarter at harvest, if we can get some test weight and protein.
>>> Thanks a lot Kim, we'll see you next week.
(mid tempo country music)
>>> Last week on the Caw-calf corner, we visited with you about a method,
of changing the feeding time during the calving season, in order to encourage more cows and heifers,
to have the calves during daylight hours.
Well, as you remember, that discussion, there was still, 15-20% of the cattle that were going to calve in the middle of the night, in the middle of the winter.
As we, go through this calving season,
it's inevitable that we'll have, one or two of those calves that was born on a really, really cold wintery night.
And we may not fight him until the next morning.
And then we've got a calf that is pretty severely cold stressed or the big word is hypothermic.
Several years ago, a rancher from East Oklahoma called me,
and told me about a method that he had discovered that seemed to help rewarm those very, very, cold stressed baby calves that he found.
And you know me, I had to go to the scientific literature and try to see if his method actually pardon the pun, held water.
Because, what he was using was a warm water bath.
To rewarm those baby calves.
Looking in scientific literature.
The folks in Canda actually had done experiments, where they took severely, cold, stressed baby calves and rewarmed them in three different methods.
They put some of the calves in a thermal blanket.
In room temperature, something between 68 and 77 degrees.
Some of the calves, they put under an infrared heat lamp in order to warm 'em up a little bit more quickly.
And then the third set, were those that they put in a warm water bath.
By warm water, I mean something about 100 degrees.
Something that'd be very comfortable for you and I to take a bath in.
What they found, was that the calves immersed in that warm water bath,
reached normal body temperature,
much quicker than did the calves warmed up in the other methods.
The difference was about a half of an hour.
The calves are rewarmed in say a thermal blanket, or under a heat lamp.
It took them an hour and a half to get back up to normal body temperature.
The calves that were rewarmed in that warm water bath, did so in right at one hour.
Now the importance of that is that those calves that rewarm more quickly then preserve some of the energy that they were born with so that their other physiological functions can go ahead and operate normally.
Those calves became more active, were more likely to go ahead and get up, want to nurse the teats of the momma cow when taken back out to the barn and get the colostrum at an earlier timeframe.
We've talked about how important that is.
So, this is a method that if you find a severely cold stressed calf,
that you might consider, it's gonna take a washtub or an old bathtub,
filled with enough warm water that you can immerse his body.
Now obviously we want to keep his head out of the water 'cause you don't want to drown the calf that you're trying to save,
and, we're going to have to dry him off before we take him back out to the cold environment that we're trying to save him from,
so that he bonds with his mother as soon as possible.
Certainly every calf that's born this winter doesn't need that warm water bath, but for those few that are really cold stressed,
this is a method that you might consider.
That means having some access to a big washtub or an old bathtub.
You may want to look that up before the calving season begins.
And speaking of before the calving season begins,
I want you to tune in next week on the Cow-Calf Corner here on SUNUP as well because we'll talk about putting together that calving kit that I think is so important to have ready before the calving season begins.
We look forward to seeing you next week on SUNUP's Cow-Calf Corner.
(upbeat guitar music)
>>> Here we are in 2017, a new year with new numbers.
And Derrell, let's talk about some of the export numbers that you have.
>>> We got new trade data last week for the month of November.
And the meat exports continue to grow.
That's a good sign.
Beef exports in the month of November were up 25% year over year.
That puts them up about 11% for the year-to-date.
Pork exports were up about 18% And that puts them up about three and a half percent for the year.
Again, they continue to grow through the year.
Broiler exports were up about 12% and that puts them up over three percent for the year-to-date.
So they've continued to strengthen through the year providing support across the board for all of the meat markets.
>>> Not only does the U.S.
Export a lot of meats, but we also import meat.
Let's talk about beef.
>>> Now on the beef imports, you know.
Imports actually increased, they've been down most of the year.
Monthly imports for the month of November were up about 12%.
They're still down about 12% for the year.
We're still down sharply from Australia, the biggest source of beef imports,
down 43% in the month of November,
down about 40% for the year-to-date.
But a couple things changed in November that we started to see.
One is that there was an announcement last fall that we now could import fresh beef from Brazil,
that really started to kick in by November so we did see, on a monthly basis, 147% year-over-year increase in that one month.
And that's a sign that we'll see a little more beef coming from Brazil.
Brazil's still a small part of our total imports, less than five percent, and they'll be less than five percent of the total for the year.
The other change we saw was Mexico imports were up 88% in the month of November.
And that's really a response to the change in the Peso value following the election.
We saw the Peso devalue sharply and so we saw a sharp increase in imports for the month, and that puts them up about 23% for the year-to-date.
>>> Now how does the Dollar conversion play into beef and cattle markets?
>>> Well again, the strength of the Dollar makes a headwind for exports, it makes our product more expensive in foreign markets and by the same token, it makes our market more attractive for imports.
So it really it works against us in both ways and we can.
we sort of expect to see the Dollar continue strong and that will continue to be a challenge for markets as we go into 2017.
>>> Now we talked about beef imports and exports.
Let's talk about live cattle imports.
>>> Cattle imports, in the month of November we saw an increase in cattle imports for the month.
We're down for the year.
From Canada we got more slaughter cattle and fewer feeder cattle which is the same we've been seeing all year.
For Mexico, we did see an increase which is a change.
And again, that's partly a response to the Peso devaluation.
So in the month of November we had an increase in Mexican cattle imports.
Again, still down sharply for the year, 23% or so.
But the dollar impact is continuing to be there and will be an issue for us in the coming year.
>>> Now, let's bring all that back to Oklahoma.
How are the cattle markets faring and what direction do you see them moving?
>>> Well in general, we finished 2016 strong.
That was strong from a really dismal period earlier in the year.
But, we're going into 2017 with a little more strength, a little more stability.
2017 in terms of a general price level is probably kind of a sideways year relative to where we ended up last year.
I don't see a lot more need for change.
We will see additional beef production in 2017.
But if demand continues strong,
and these trade numbers play an important role in that,
then the increase in demand can offset the increase in supply and keep prices fairly stable,
otherwise we might see some additional price pressure as we go through the year.
>>> Now the herd expanded this last year.
Are we back to levels that are comfortable for producers?
>>> Well, you know we're waiting for the annual numbers to really confirm what happened in 2016 and where we're looking at for 2017.
We're probably moving towards a more stable kind of number.
I think we're winding down herd expansion.
We did expand, I'm pretty sure, in 2016.
We may see a little more expansion in 2017, but maybe not a great deal and certainly as we think about going into 2018 we're probably talking about a more stable herd size.
Thank you much.
Derrell Peel, Livestock marketing specialist here at Oklahoma State University.
>>> Thanks so much for joining us for SUNUP this week.
Remember you can find us anytime online on our website and also follow us on YouTube and Social Media.
I'm Lyndall Stout.
Have a great week everyone.
And remember, Oklahoma Ag starts at SUNUP.