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E-mail: sunup@okstate.edu

 

 

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Transcript for May 11, 2019

Transcript to come.

This show includes the following segments: 

  • Looking ahead to summer crops
  • Market Monitor
  • Old World Bluestem & pasture planting
  • Mesonet Weather
  • Wheat Update
  • Cow-Calf Corner
  • Livestock Marketing

 

 (upbeat music)

>>> Hello everyone and welcome to SUNUP.

I'm Lyndall Stout.

We join you today from a stop on the wheat tour

in Dewey County.

Most of the wheat looks really great after all the rain,

but with the rain, comes a few challenges.

>>> A wet year and timely rains

throughout the winter, spring,

going in, sure enough makes a difference

and they're seeing that.

It's been real good, just like last night

we got three inches, last night, right in here.

And some of it, there's gonna be some wheat down.

Hopefully some of it will get back up in some areas,

but, yeah, it's been a tremendous spring for them

and the yield potential out there's real good.

>>> We'll have more from the wheat tour in just a moment,

but first we're talking summer crops.

Here's Sunup's Dave Deken and

our extension cropping system specialist, Josh Lofton.

 

Looking ahead to summer crops

>>> Depending on where you're at in the state,

you've had a lot of rain over the past couple weeks,

and Josh, that's really impacted the summer crops.

>>> Yeah, I mean we've seen pretty much throughout the state

that our planted acres, or what folks have been able

to get in, is relatively low.

Now what is in, is really good, but we've had

quite a bit less actual planted acres than we'd like

to see at this time.

But, Dave, it's not just the rain,

it's also been the temperatures.

We've been really cool these last couple weeks,

you know our prime, our typical prime planting periods,

if you look at soil temperatures,

they've been around 58 to 60 for our three-day average,

and so we see that kind of situation leads a lot of growers

to be a little hesitant to go in

and go put some seed in the ground

and the seed that we have been able to put in the ground

has been relatively slow out of the ground.

Kind of really nice conditions, getting a nice good

soil profile of moisture,

but it's really slowed us down quite a bit.

>>> This is kind of the prime time for planting

over the next few, well, this kind of two week-period here.

What if we don't get the seed in the ground

during that prime period?

When is too late, that's my question.

>>> So, too late is always a weird term,

because it's never too late to get everything planted,

especially if you have good conditions.

As we start to warm up over the next week or so,

then the plants will start to really come out

of the ground really quickly,

really get early season growth, but the big question

we always have with later planted,

is what's July going to do?

And that July and early August are what really gets us.

That's typically when a lot of our crops

planted a little later,

especially during the second, third week of May,

are going through reproductive growth during that time.

They're very sensitive to heat, they're very sensitive

to drought, they really need to be coddled a little bit

and really kept nice and if we have a really rough July,

with no rain, 100-degree temperatures

for a prolonged period of time,

we see a lot of our yield potential go down substantially,

so when asking the question,

what is too late, it really just, it really depends

on what's going to happen a couple months from now.

>>> But it does look like some things are growing

in the summer crop fields right now, these weeds.

>>> Yeah, that's going to be probably

one of our biggest challenges this year.

We have a lot of pests in our summer crop fields

and weed management is going to be one of those big issues.

If you have a field that is notoriously weedy,

and that hasn't been planted, we might want to go back in

with that second round of burn down

before we go into a pre-plant program.

This is going to be, with all this moisture

and this rising heat, we are going to see a lot of weeds

start coming out of the ground.

And the unfortunate thing, is depending on the weed,

they typically outgrow our crops' early season,

so that's why they are weeds and they have

that kind of mechanism to them,

so we really need to make sure, especially this year

that we're starting out clean, we got a good pre-plant

herbicide program, that's going to be very critical

to make sure we're successful,

on throughout the rest of the season.

>>> So, as we move through the next couple months,

there's an opportunity

with more insect pressure, too, correct?

>>> Yeah, and we're already starting to see

some of our insect pressure.

We're starting to see a lot of our worms

starting coming in to some of our corn and sorghum areas.

We have seen reports of a lot of chewing

and a lot of feeding, and that's one thing

that you're going to want to address.

Most of the time we're seeing worms right now be very small.

And so they're easily controlled.

What we don't want to see is them get out of hand,

because if they grow bigger, or if they just continue

to feed on that crop, they can just completely

destroy that crop, and it'll be a loss.

So, one thing we're going to have to watch really early here

and based on everything else, with as green as it's looking

this summer might be early season,

that's always that tell-tale sign that we might have

other pests start coming in when we've got a lot

of the road ditches and the tree-line areas are really green

that's where a lot of our pests can kind of sit and wait

for that crop to get ready

and then move into that crop field.

>>> So, plant now and pray for July.

>>> We can only hope, Dave, we can only hope.

>>> Okay, thank you much, Josh Lofton,

cropping systems specialist,

here at Oklahoma State University.

(upbeat music)

 

Market Monitor

>>> Russia sold wheat to the Philippines this week,

and here to break it down for us is Kim Anderson,

our crop marketing specialist, and Kim, the big question.

Why didn't the US get that sale?

>>> Well, they just underbid us.

First off, it's animal-feed wheat that they sold

into the Philippines.

They sold it for about 200 dollars a metric ton,

that's about $5.44 CNF,

in other words, delivered to the Philippines.

If you, the United States, you look at the mileage,

it's about 10,600 miles from the US,

that's Houston to the Philippines,

it's about 11,400 or so from Russia,

so the freight and cost about the same.

They're about a, I'd say, a dollar a bushel to get it

to the Philippines, so that gets that price down to

$4.44 FOB on the vessel.

If you back it off to Oklahoma wheat, takes about,

say $1.44, just for even numbers, to get it down

and on that ship, so that we'd have to bid three dollars,

for our feed wheat to compete with Russia.

That's why we didn't get the sale, but the good news is,

is it's feed wheat and it's still being delivered

in July and August, and what it tells me is that Russia

is emptying their bins, getting ready for a big crop.

>>> Well, let's talk about US exports

and whether they're meeting projections.

>>> I think they are, you know, I've heard some comments

that we just didn't have the export demand this year

and we didn't for a while, it picked up.

You look at all US export sales,

nine percent above last year, it's projected to be

up five percent, so we're good there.

Hard red winter wheat was projected to be down

ten percent, we're even with last year, so that's good.

Now, soft red winter wheat was projected to be 43%

because we had a horrible year last year.

It's only up 34, but overall, our wheat sale and exports

are relatively good.

>>> What about the projections for 2019 wheat production?

>>> If you look at that production on the world,

it's come in at 28.1 billion bushels,

that's going to be a new record,

about five percent above last year's level.

The United States, right under two billion bushels,

that's up about four percent.

Oklahoma, 119 million bushels, up 70%.

When we talk about that, that's going to offset

this low price we've got.

Russia, you know, when we started with them,

they were down about 2.5 billion bushels.

Estimates came out this week, from three billion

to about 3.06 billion bushels,

so more wheat for next year's market.

>>> We've been out this week with Oklahoma producers

at field days, talking about prices of course.

How does it compare in Oklahoma right now,

compared to this time last year?

>>> Well, if you look at what they can forward-contract

wheat for harvest delivery, it's $3.85 a bushel,

this time last year it was five dollars and a nickel.

The good news is there that our production's up 70%

and our price is down significantly less than that,

so there's going to be, there's a potential for

significantly higher income this year,

even though we have significantly lower prices.

>>> Okay, Kim, we appreciate your perspective, as always.

Thanks a lot.

And switching gears now to look at a drought-tolerant

forage option for producers,

here is our extension forage system specialist,

Alex Rocateli.

 

Old World Bluestem & pasture planting

>>> Now in Oklahoma, it's the best time for we think about

establishing new perennial warm season pastures.

And most of the time what comes to the mind

is Bermuda grass.

However, in the last weeks, I got lots of questions

from educators and producers,

asking about Old World bluestems.

And I would like to say that yes, Old World bluestem

can be a good option for Oklahoma.

When selecting and thinking Bermuda grass versus

Old World bluestem, I would like to say,

in limited water conditions and low fertilization,

Old World bluestems can do more than Bermuda grass.

However, if you have more water availability,

more rainfall, and also you are planning on providing

more fertilization there, I would say Bermuda grass

might be a better fit.

In locations where we have annual precipitation

lower than 23 inches, I would say old world bluestem

might be a more interesting option

because it's more drought-resistant and can produce more

in that condition than Bermuda grass.

There are different varieties available.

The most common and traditional one is the Plains,

but if you are in a situation or condition

that you have less than 18 inches of rainfall,

you may think about WW-Spar.

That was a selection from Plains

where they select the biotypes

that's more drought-resistant.

Now, there are other options.

For instance, Caucasian.

Caucasian is going to be suitable also for all the state.

You can produce more in quantity, but

however the quality's going to be a little lower,

and there is a new variety, relatively new.

That's the WW-B. Dahl

that we can have more production toward the end

of the season, however, I would say this variety

would be suitable more for the south portion of Oklahoma.

Don't plant this variety up to the I-40.

Just down I-40, that would be the best.

When you talk about establishing old world bluestems,

if you are familiar how to do with alfalfa,

that would be about the same.

You need to prepare a very good and firm seed bed

where when you step with your feet

it doesn't sink more than half an inch.

Now, when you talk about fertilization,

you can go traditionally and incorporate

Lime P and K during the bad preparation

by incorporating at three inches,

or you can band fertilizer

nitrogen and phosphorus for instance, diammonium phosphate

to depth, close to the seed row.

That would be a good option,

and also improve establishment odds.

Also, controlling weeds during

the establishment year is crucial.

Make sure that your seed bed is absent of any weeds.

Overall, old world bluestem is a very good option

if you are in a limited rainfall condition,

and you can have about three to five tons per acre.

(bouncy country music)

 

Mesonet Weather

>>> Welcome to the weekly Mesonet weather report.

Another week in the books

and another round of rain statewide,

most of it falling on soils that were already saturated.

The past week rainfall totals

as of May 8th showed rainfall at every Mesonet site

with several places in the state

receiving more than five inches.

Storms were the heaviest in the west central region,

and Eric topped the charts at 6.39 inches.

Turning to soil moisture, we see the main part of the state

is about as wet as it can get.

A fractional water index of one means

the moisture gauge is at the full mark.

At the four-inch depth, ones dominate the chart.

A small area in far southwest

and the western half of the panhandle

are the last holdouts.

This past week's limited rain in those areas

were not enough to offset moisture loss

due to evapotranspiration.

The forecast for the week of May 13th

shows rain probabilities at either normal

or just slightly above normal.

But for May, that doesn't necessarily

relate to dry conditions.

The purple bars on this chart

shows the statewide 30-year average rainfall for each month.

May is the wettest, reaching close to five inches.

The blue bars are the amounts received this year.

So even a normal week in May could bring us

several more inches of rain.

Gary is up next with more on spring rainfall totals.

>>> Thanks, Wes, and good morning, everyone.

Well, I'm not sure what to say here, sometimes

Mother Nature just leaves me speechless,

but I'll try and say something anyway.

Let's get right to the drought monitor map

'cause we do have some changes on there.

Believe it or not, there is a part of the state

that's not getting enough rainfall.

The far western panhandle, specifically Cimarron County,

is now in abnormally dry conditions.

I know everybody else across the state

is finding that hard to believe,

but those folks out there do need rainfall,

and I'll show you about what's going on out there

on the Mesonet rainfall maps.

We're gonna look at the spring thus far,

so starting in March 1st, which is also

the beginning of the growing season,

we can see out there in the panhandle Boyd City,

at least through Wednesday, has only had 1.8 inches

of rainfall, which is incredible considering

the amounts across the rest of the state.

Even the eastern panhandle has had five to six inches.

But we see large areas of the state,

across west central, through central,

and over into eastern Oklahoma,

with 13 to 16 inches of rainfall.

If we go to the departure from normal map

for, again, March 1st through May 8th,

We see four to six inches above normal

for most of the safe.

Now if we go to the percent of normal rainfall map

for the spring thus far,

we see that death set out in the western panhandle

actually show up a little bit better.

Where they have forty to sixty percent of normal rainfall

for the spring thus far.

Now overall though, we're seeing lots of wet,

lots of surplus moisture across the state.

And, in fact, it's the ninth wettest spring this far,

and with a statewide average at 10.75 inches.

So nobody in the state needs more rainfall

except the western panhandle.

So if mother nature could cooperate,

we would certainly appreciate it.

Get rid of those flood warnings and let things dry out,

and let's get some moisture out

in the panhandle for those folks.

That's it for this time.

We'll see you next time on Mesonet Weather Report.

 

Wheat Update

>>> We're joined now by Josh Bushong, our northwest area

extension Agronomist.

Josh, so let's just kinda talk overall how the wheat

is looking in this part of the state.

>>> Overall, we've been very pleased with rains this year

so we got a lot of good yield potential.

Even some of that later planted wheat,

we were worried about being small coming out of winter,

it's had a good spring to recover.

It is gonna be delayed in maturity,

but it does have the yield potential to it.

So we got good potential on that.

Stuff that's doing really well,

like the double stop here behind us,

might be over sixty bushels.

We have some doubt.

If we didn't have enough fertility out there,

we might be a little lacking on protein,

but overall I think yields and protein

are gonna be well above expected for this year.

>>> In general, the rain's been a blessing

but then we have scenarios like this.

Talk about what we're seeing and what's caused it

and whether some of these fields will bounce back.

>>> So some of these big storms we've been getting,

we got a lot of heavy wins, heavy rains, wind driven rain,

and we have this crop when it's at its heaviest.

That means berries on top,

and so it's very easy to lodge, kink over.

If it's very severe, where the stems are kinked,

more than likely it's probably not gonna bounce back.

But if you look out there where it just kinda

bend a little bit, they can recover that some.

There are some varietal differences.

Some have a stronger straw strength to the others

as well as high fertility,

we usually see more lodging as well.

And obviously down in the lower portions of the fields,

if water's actually running across the field

you'll see more severity of the lodging.

>>> Any other challenges kinda going on

with the crop right now?

>>> Well going into spring this year, overall we were very

light on disease pressure but

we are starting to see it ramp up a little bit.

So we have been seeing powdery mildew and stripe rust

on low occasions across the region,

and then some tan spot Septoria down low.

The powdery mildew in some fields it is starting

to creep up in the upper canopy up to the flag leaf

as well as the stripe rust on susceptible varieties.

And in this week we are starting to see

some leaf rust out there.

So that's a big concern for us.

Especially getting this late in the year,

we're kinda almost to the point where we can't

really apply anything to keep that flag leaf healthy,

to protect that yield potential.

But there are some fungicides so get with your

county educator or your chemical sales rep

and see what options you have.

Some products we can apply after it's headed, after it's

flowered up to that watering stage in that kernel.

So we do have some products.

Be sure to also look at if there's any pre-harvest

interval restrictions on those products.

But keeping that flag leaf is gonna be pretty critical

to finish out that crop.

So get good grain quality.

We want to make sure that we protect that

as well as yield potential.

Filling those berries if we don't shut down too early

with that leaf rust.

>>> What's the best case scenario for growers

between now and harvest?

What do we need to happen so that we can make the most of

what we're seeing besides this lodging here.

>>> Most guys are pretty well set on,

you know get a profile on soil moisture,

probably won't hurt to get another one.

So we don't want hail and wind and tornadoes

any severe storms, but good, filling conditions are

you know moderate temperatures, hopefully stay in

the eighties if we can.

Just get those temperatures back up.

Get this crop to finish out.

We've been filling very well so far

in this filling period so hopefully if just continues.

>>> Let's hope.

Okay, Josh thanks for your time today.

We'll see you again soon.

>>> Thank you.

 

Cow-Calf Corner

>>> During the middle of calving season,

when it's say in February, it's cold, it's wet,

and you've been up night after night

checking up on cows and heifers to see

if they need assistance during the calving season,

it's probably not the best time to ask a rancher

about how calving season's going.

But now that calving season is basically behind us,

I think this is an excellent opportunity

to look back at this past calving season,

and see what problems we had and what changes

we might make between now and next spring

to alleviate some of those problems.

First thing I'd do is get out my calving book.

Look back at the notes that I've taken.

Let's look down through and see where we lost some calves.

Did we have those calves that we lost right at delivery,

right at the calving time,

or did we have some calves that were lost,

a week to ten days, perhaps two weeks later?

As we look back through our book,

I think that can give us some ideas

of things that we need to reexamine for next year.

For instance, if most of our death loss is occurring

right at calving, right at delivery,

then I would suggest we take a real hard look

at our sire selection.

Let's make sure that from now on,

we're working harder to choose those bulls

with low birth weight EPD's, calving ease bulls,

that perhaps will decrease the incidents

of calving difficulty.

Number two on that list, also,

I would really take a close look

at our heifer growing program.

Our heifers, calving out

at about a body condition score six.

And that just means that they're in good, moderate condition

at calving time.

They're properly developed, as big as they need to be,

gives them the best chance to have that calf

in a situation where they're strong,

the calf is strong, and we have the delivery taking place

either unassisted, or with some slight assistance.

If where our calf loss that we see in our record book

is showing up later, a week to two weeks later,

that indicates probably we have an issue

with calf diarrhea.

And in the situation where that's a cause

of a lot of our losses, then I think we need

to reexamine where we're calving these cows out.

Are we using the same trap and the same pasture

year after year after year, and perhaps there's a buildup

of the organisms that can cause calf scours in that area.

Perhaps it's time to go ahead and give that pasture a rest,

move to a different trap for calving for a couple of years,

and see if we can break the cycle of those organisms

causing those particular diseases in those calves.

Certainly, I think that if you'll take a good hard look

back at this last calving season,

and then we have time to make some changes

before next spring occurs,

we'll have a lot better calving season next year.

Hey, we look forward to visiting with you next week

on SUNUP's Cow Calf Corner.

 

Livestock Marketing

>>> Well rain, rain, rain, and more rain.

So Derrell, how has this rain impacted cattle markets?

>>> Well, if you look in Oklahoma,

obviously we do have a lot of wet sloppy conditions,

which is a management headache for most folks.

We've had enough rain recently,

there's some localized flooding,

which could be a more serious issue,

but, it's again mostly a management headache.

And in a little broader context,

feedlots around the country are dealing

with a lot of wet sloppy conditions.

Again, I don't think that's probably having

a market level impact so much.

It certainly affects performance,

and again is a challenge for those producers.

Even more broadly than that, we're at a time now when,

we've got lots of corn, and we're anticipating continuation

of favorable feed prices from a livestock perspective,

but we go another ten days or two weeks

with little corn planting progress around the country,

we could start to see some weather market impacts

that will show up in prices for feed,

and may begin to impact livestock producers

from that standpoint.

>>> You mentioned flooding, has these type of conditions,

or those type of conditions impacted cattle

with cattle losses at all?

>>> Well, I haven't heard any new numbers for awhile.

I think it's pretty generally recognized now

that the losses of cattle during the flood,

directly due to the floods, wasn't nearly as big

as maybe earlier anticipated,

but there certainly were some losses.

More broadly than that, we had a lot of weather conditions,

blizzards and so on, that caused some cattle losses.

Some of those landed right on top of calving,

so lots of baby calves.

>>> So what's the news with feeder and fed cattle prices?

>>> Well having said all of that about the weather impacts,

we did see a pretty typical seasonal spring

for feeder and fed cattle prices,

so we went up through the first quarter,

we appeared to have peaked out in April.

It's pretty clear now that we have moved past that.

We've seen a significant drop in fed cattle prices

here in the last ten days or so.

Feeder cattle prices also look

like they have generally peaked.

Especially for the lighter weight cattle,

although again, there's still a little bit

of grazing demand that perhaps is a little delayed,

because we're kind of slow getting out on pasture.

>>> Yeah, speaking of the summer,

grilling season is gonna be kicking off pretty soon

if it hasn't already, the weather's getting warmer.

So how is beef demand looking this season?

>>> Well, we saw pretty good evidence of the grilling demand,

again, a month ago, with the buying getting in place,

for starting with Memorial Day weekend.

That all takes place about a month ahead of time at least.

And we saw that with boxed beef prices moving up

to that early April to mid April peak.

Again, those boxed beef prices now have come off of that.

Part of that's because that initial wave of buying is done,

although, again, summer demand looks pretty good.

The other thing is that seasonal increases

in beef production are really kicking in now,

so we're seeing bigger slaughter numbers,

the weights are slowly at least matching last year's levels,

they're not as much down as they were.

So were gonna see more tonnage on the market,

and that's gonna pull us down seasonally,

but all of that said, it looks like the beef demand

is held very good this year.

>>> All right, thanks Derrell.

Derrell Peel, Livestock Marketing Specialist

here at Oklahoma State University.

 

>>> That'll do it for us this week.

Remember, you can find us anytime on our website

at sunup.okstate.edu and also follow us

on YouTube and social media.

From Dewey County, I'm Lyndall Stout,

have a great week everyone, and remember,

Oklahoma agriculture starts at SUNUP.

(twangy music)

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